SDP⇄MIA

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$134.4M net +7.8

received +$24.0M+$24.0M ± $39M expected surplus · +$146.4M realized received 5.6 ± 5 expected · 10.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2001 odds 2% → 3% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark KotsayOF·25y·L/L

+$22.4M+$22.4M± $33M exp surplusrealized +$152.0M 4.4± 4 exp WARrealized 10.8

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.31/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

1.46/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

César Crespo2B/OF·22y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.8

Prior

#90 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Dave Dombrowski net −$134.4M net -7.8

received +$36.8M+$36.8M ± $47M expected surplus · +$12.0M realized received 7.7 ± 6 expected · 2.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2001 odds 23% → 17% (-6.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt ClementP·26y·R/R

+$29.2M+$29.2M± $41M exp surplusrealized +$16.8M 4.3± 5 exp WARrealized 1.6

Prior

Composite #10.0 pedigree (Baseball America #10 (1999)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed → 0.36/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.6/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.06/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Omar OrtizP·23y·S/R

+$8.3M+$8.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.5± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#29 overall draft pick → 0.41/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.41/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Eric OwensOF·30y·R/R

−$1.0M−$1.0M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.9± 1 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.60/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.