STL⇄SDP

STLSTL Walt Jocketty net +$173.6M net +13.0

received −$17.6M−$17.6M ± $16M expected surplus · +$127.2M realized received 1.9 ± 2 expected · 12.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2001 odds 54% → 61% (+6.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Woody WilliamsP·34y·R/R

−$17.6M−$17.6M± $16M exp surplusrealized +$127.2M 1.9± 2 exp WARrealized 12.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

1.34/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net −$173.6M net -13.0

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $20M expected surplus · −$46.4M realized received 4.1 ± 2 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2001 odds 3% → 3% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ray LankfordOF·34y·L/L

+$9.0M+$9.0M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$46.4M 4.1± 2 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.1/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

2.80/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.