NYY⇄SDP

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net +$0.8M net +0.2

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $16M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2001 odds 60% → 61% (+1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carlos AlmánzarP·27y·R/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $16M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

-0.02/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net −$0.8M net -0.2

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.3 ± 3 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2001 odds 3% → 3% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

David LeeP·28y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.3± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#627 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.75 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.