RRosternomics

Athletics OAK

GM: Billy Beane

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 9 in this regime · payroll 0.79× league · TAB +2.8
+2.8TAB — talent above budget13th/30
-3.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)20th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars19th/30
-4.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag18th/30
66%dead money %30th/30
0.469win %19th/30
34.2roster fWAR14th/30
-2surplus $M (value vs cost)11th/30
$65Mpayroll $M22nd/30

Roster

CFNick Swisher 59GMark Kotsay 56GJeff DaVanon 23G
LFShannon Stewart 139GChris Snelling 21GTravis Buck 18G
RFTravis Buck 65GNick Swisher 57GJack Cust 48G
SSBobby Crosby 92GMarco Scutaro 43GDonnie Murphy 31G
2BMark Ellis 150GMarco Scutaro 13GJ.J. Furmaniak 4G
3BEric Chavez 88GJack Hannahan 41GMarco Scutaro 36G
1BDan Johnson 97GNick Swisher 44GDaric Barton 18G
STARTERSJoe Blanton 5.2WARDan Haren 4.6WARChad Gaudin 1.8WARDallas Braden 0.9WARLenny DiNardo 0.5WAR
CKurt Suzuki 66GRob Bowen 56G
DHMike Piazza 73GJack Cust 56GDan Johnson 17G
BULLPEN Huston Street 16svAlan Embree 16hSantiago Casilla 12hJay Marshall 9hKiko Calero 9hAndrew Brown 3hColby Lewis 3hRuddy Lugo 1h
CKurt Suzuki 66 · Rob Bowen 56
1BDan Johnson 97 · Nick Swisher 44 · Daric Barton 18
2BMark Ellis 150 · Marco Scutaro 13 · J.J. Furmaniak 4
3BEric Chavez 88 · Jack Hannahan 41 · Marco Scutaro 36
SSBobby Crosby 92 · Marco Scutaro 43 · Donnie Murphy 31
LFShannon Stewart 139 · Chris Snelling 21 · Travis Buck 18
CFNick Swisher 59 · Mark Kotsay 56 · Jeff DaVanon 23
RFTravis Buck 65 · Nick Swisher 57 · Jack Cust 48
DHMike Piazza 73 · Jack Cust 56 · Dan Johnson 17
SPJoe Blanton 5.2 · Dan Haren 4.6 · Chad Gaudin 1.8 · Dallas Braden 0.9 · Lenny DiNardo 0.5
BP Huston Street 16 · Alan Embree 16 · Santiago Casilla 12 · Jay Marshall 9 · Kiko Calero 9 · Andrew Brown 3 · Colby Lewis 3 · Ruddy Lugo 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2007 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Joe Blanton 26 arb 345.2 0.4 +10.9
Dan Haren 26 arb 344.6 2.2 +7.7
Mark Ellis 30 arb 1504.4 3.5 +5.9
Nick Swisher 26 arb 1504.0 0.4 +8.1
Jack Cust 28 1242.8
Travis Buck 23 pre-arb 822.2 0.4 +4.3
Chad Gaudin 24 arb 341.8 0.4 +3.5
Huston Street 23 pre-arb 481.4 0.4 +2.7
Kurt Suzuki 23 681.2 0.2 +2.3
Daric Barton 21 181.2
Alan Embree 37 FA-elig 681.1 2.4 +0.0
Dan Johnson 27 pre-arb 1171.0 0.4 +1.8
Shannon Stewart 33 FA-elig 1461.0 1.0 +1.1
Dallas Braden 23 200.9
Eric Chavez 29 FA-elig 900.9 9.5 -7.6
Andrew Brown 26 330.7
Jack Hannahan 27 410.7 0.4 +1.0
Lenny DiNardo 27 arb 350.5 0.4 +0.7
Rob Bowen↔ CHC 26 arb 210.5 0.1 +0.9
Joe Kennedy↔ ARI 28 FA-elig 270.5 1.9 -0.9
Milton Bradley↔ SDP 29 FA-elig 190.4 1.2 -0.3
Marco Scutaro 31 arb 1040.4 1.6 -0.8
Santiago Casilla 26 460.4 0.4 +0.4
Rich Harden 25 arb 70.4 2.2 -1.5
Esteban Loaiza↔ LAD 35 FA-elig 20.2 2.1 -1.6
Kiko Calero 32 arb 460.2 1.6 -1.2
Donnie Murphy 24 420.2
Ruddy Lugo↔ TBR 27 pre-arb 270.1 0.3 +0.0
Adam Melhuse↔ TEX 35 FA-elig 120.1 0.3 -0.0
Dee Brown 29 80.1
Chris Snelling↔ WSN 25 arb 60.1 0.1 +0.0
Dan Meyer 25 60.0
Kevin Melillo 25 10.0
Erasmo Ramirez↔ MIA 31 30.0
Jeff DaVanon↔ ARI 33 FA-elig 260.0 0.8 -0.8
Bobby Crosby 27 arb 93-0.0 2.5 -2.6
Jay Witasick↔ TBR 34 FA-elig 16-0.0 0.7 -0.7
Ron Flores 27 17-0.0
Ryan Langerhans↔ ATL 27 arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Connor Robertson 25 3-0.0
Jerry Blevins 23 6-0.0
J.J. Furmaniak 27 16-0.0
Shane Komine 26 2-0.1
Mike Piazza 38 FA-elig 83-0.3 8.5 -9.1
Justin Duchscherer 29 FA-elig 17-0.3 1.2 -1.7
Jay Marshall 24 pre-arb 51-0.3 0.4 -1.0
Danny Putnam 24 11-0.3
Bobby Kielty↔ BOS 30 FA-elig 13-0.3 0.8 -1.5
Hiram Bocachica↔ SDP 31 6-0.3
Colby Lewis 27 26-0.3 0.5 -1.2
Todd Walker 34 FA-elig 18-0.4 0.5 -1.2
Kevin Thompson↔ NYY 27 9-0.4
Jason Kendall↔ CHC 33 FA-elig 80-0.7 7.6 -9.0
Mark Kotsay 31 FA-elig 56-1.0 8.0 -10.1

Key additions (new vs 2006)

PlayerfWAR
Jack Cust2.8
Travis Buck2.2
Kurt Suzuki1.2
Daric Barton1.2
Alan Embree1.1
Shannon Stewart1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2006)

Player2006 fWAR
Frank Thomas2.4
Barry Zito2.1
Jay Payton1.0
Brad Halsey0.1
Jason Windsor0.0
Jeremy Brown0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2007 payroll
$65.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2007, 2007–2013. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Eric Chavez299.000$9.5M$11.5M$11.5M$12.5MFREE AGENT
Mike Piazza3815.000$8.5MFREE AGENT
Mark Kotsay3110.000$8.0MFREE AGENT
Jason Kendall3311.000$7.6MFREE AGENT
Alan Embree3715.000$2.4M$3.1MFREE AGENT
Esteban Loaiza3512.000$2.1MFREE AGENT
Joe Kennedy286.000$1.9MFREE AGENT
Milton Bradley297.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Justin Duchscherer296.000$1.2M$1.2MFREE AGENT$1.8M
Shannon Stewart3312.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Jeff DaVanon338.000$833kFREE AGENT
Bobby Kielty306.000$827kFREE AGENT
Jay Witasick3411.000$667kFREE AGENT
Todd Walker3411.000$450kFREE AGENT
Adam Melhuse357.000$279kFREE AGENT
Dee Brown299.000FREE AGENT
Hiram Bocachica317.000FREE AGENT
Jack Cust286.000$410k$2.8M$2.6MFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Mark Ellis305.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Bobby Crosby274.000$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Haren264.000$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Rich Harden254.000$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kiko Calero324.000$1.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Marco Scutaro315.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Colby Lewis275.000$500kFREE AGENT
Chad Gaudin244.000$400kARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Swisher263.000$400kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lenny DiNardo273.000$390kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Blanton263.000$380kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Santiago Casilla263.000$380kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Bowen264.000$132kARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Snelling255.000$90kFREE AGENT
Ryan Langerhans275.000$7kFREE AGENT
Erasmo Ramirez314.000ARB 3FREE AGENT
Donnie Murphy243.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Meyer253.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2007200820092010201120122013
Dan Johnson272.000$390kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Hannahan271.000$380kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Huston Street232.000$380kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Travis Buck230.000$380kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jay Marshall240.000$380kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ruddy Lugo271.000$287kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kurt Suzuki230.000$233kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Brown261.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
J.J. Furmaniak27
Daric Barton210.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ron Flores27
Kevin Melillo25
Connor Robertson25
Kevin Thompson27
Shane Komine26
Danny Putnam24
Jerry Blevins230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dallas Braden230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Athletics 2007; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3