WSN⇄OAK

WSNWSN Jim Bowden net +$2.4M net +0.5

received +$24.0M+$24.0M ± $39M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 4.6 ± 5 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2007 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ryan LangerhansOF·27y·L/L

+$24.4M+$24.4M± $39M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 4.6± 5 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

1.16/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$2.4M net -0.5

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $9M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2007 odds 14% → 16% (+1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris SnellingOF·25y·L/L

+$5.5M+$5.5M± $9M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.1/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.61/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.