RRosternomics

Athletics OAK

GM: Billy Beane

Overview

WINDOW → steady
cheap & winning · year 10 in this regime · payroll 0.62× league · TAB +0.7
+0.7TAB — talent above budget15th/30
-0.2WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)17th/30
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars7th/30
-5.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag16th/30
58%dead money %28th/30
0.466win %19th/30
28.8roster fWAR20th/30
+4surplus $M (value vs cost)7th/30
$54Mpayroll $M26th/30

Roster

CFRajai Davis 88GCarlos González 69GRyan Sweeney 51G
LFJack Cust 78GEmil Brown 65GAaron Cunningham 18G
RFRyan Sweeney 75GEmil Brown 55GCarlos González 36G
SSBobby Crosby 145GDonnie Murphy 13GCliff Pennington 10G
2BMark Ellis 115GEric Patterson 22GCliff Pennington 16G
3BJack Hannahan 126GDonnie Murphy 24GEric Chavez 15G
1BDaric Barton 134GWes Bankston 13GMike Sweeney 13G
STARTERSJustin Duchscherer 2.4WARDana Eveland 2.3WARGreg Smith 1.4WARDallas Braden 0.6WARSean Gallagher 0.2WAR
CKurt Suzuki 141GRob Bowen 31G
DHFrank Thomas 69GJack Cust 61GMike Sweeney 19G
BULLPEN Huston Street 18svAlan Embree 18hJoey Devine 11hBrad Ziegler 9hKeith Foulke 8hSantiago Casilla 7hJerry Blevins 5hAndrew Brown 2h
CKurt Suzuki 141 · Rob Bowen 31
1BDaric Barton 134 · Wes Bankston 13 · Mike Sweeney 13
2BMark Ellis 115 · Eric Patterson 22 · Cliff Pennington 16
3BJack Hannahan 126 · Donnie Murphy 24 · Eric Chavez 15
SSBobby Crosby 145 · Donnie Murphy 13 · Cliff Pennington 10
LFJack Cust 78 · Emil Brown 65 · Aaron Cunningham 18
CFRajai Davis 88 · Carlos González 69 · Ryan Sweeney 51
RFRyan Sweeney 75 · Emil Brown 55 · Carlos González 36
DHFrank Thomas 69 · Jack Cust 61 · Mike Sweeney 19
SPJustin Duchscherer 2.4 · Dana Eveland 2.3 · Greg Smith 1.4 · Dallas Braden 0.6 · Sean Gallagher 0.2
BP Huston Street 18 · Alan Embree 18 · Joey Devine 11 · Brad Ziegler 9 · Keith Foulke 8 · Santiago Casilla 7 · Jerry Blevins 5 · Andrew Brown 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2008 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Kurt Suzuki 24 pre-arb 1483.4 0.4 +7.3
Mark Ellis 31 FA-elig 1172.8 5.0 +1.5
Rich Harden↔ CHC 26 arb 132.4 2.5 +3.0
Justin Duchscherer 30 FA-elig 222.4 1.2 +4.3
Dana Eveland 24 arb 292.3 0.4 +4.9
Ryan Sweeney 23 pre-arb 1152.2 0.4 +4.6
Jack Cust 29 FA-elig 1482.1 0.4 +4.5
Joe Blanton↔ PHI 27 arb 201.5 2.2 +1.2
Joey Devine 24 421.5
Greg Smith 24 321.4
Bobby Crosby 28 arb 1451.3 3.5 -0.5
Jack Hannahan 28 pre-arb 1431.3 0.4 +2.6
Rajai Davis↔ SFG 27 pre-arb 1011.1 0.4 +2.2
Huston Street 24 arb 631.1 3.3 -0.8
Carlos González 22 851.0
Travis Buck 24 pre-arb 380.9 0.4 +1.7
Chad Gaudin↔ CHC 25 arb 260.7 0.9 +0.8
Daric Barton 22 pre-arb 1400.7 0.4 +1.1
Josh Outman 23 60.6
Jerry Blevins 24 360.6 0.4 +0.9
Dallas Braden 24 190.6
Brad Ziegler 28 470.5 0.4 +0.8
Santiago Casilla 27 arb 510.3 0.4 +0.3
Mike Sweeney 34 FA-elig 420.3 0.5 +0.1
Sean Gallagher↔ CHC 22 110.2
Aaron Cunningham 22 220.2
Gregorio Petit 23 140.2
Kirk Saarloos 29 80.2
Kiko Calero 33 arb 50.1 1.0 -0.9
Jeff Fiorentino 25 20.0
Alan Embree 38 FA-elig 700.0 3.1 -3.1
Eric Chavez 30 FA-elig 230.0 11.5 -11.5
Dan Johnson↔ TBR 28 arb 1-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Jeff Gray 26 5-0.0
Donnie Murphy 25 arb 46-0.1 0.4 -0.5
Andrew Brown 27 pre-arb 31-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Fernando Hernandez 23 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Frank Thomas↔ TOR 40 FA-elig 55-0.1 9.7 -10.0
Lenny DiNardo 28 arb 11-0.2 0.9 -1.3
Matt Murton↔ CHC 26 9-0.2
Brooks Conrad 28 6-0.2
Dan Meyer 26 11-0.2
Cliff Pennington 24 36-0.3 0.4 -1.0
Chris Denorfia 27 arb 29-0.3 0.4 -1.0
Emil Brown 33 FA-elig 117-0.3 1.4 -2.0
Wes Bankston 24 17-0.3
Jeff Baisley 25 14-0.4
Keith Foulke 35 FA-elig 31-0.5 0.7 -1.8
Eric Patterson↔ CHC 25 30-0.6
Rob Bowen 27 arb 37-0.7 0.4 -1.9
Gio Gonzalez 22 10-0.7

Key additions (new vs 2007)

PlayerfWAR
Dana Eveland2.3
Ryan Sweeney2.2
Joey Devine1.5
Greg Smith1.4
Rajai Davis1.1
Carlos González1.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2007)

Player2007 fWAR
Dan Haren4.6
Nick Swisher4.0
Shannon Stewart1.0
Joe Kennedy0.5
Milton Bradley0.4
Marco Scutaro0.4

Current & Historical Payroll

2008 payroll
$54.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 2008, 2008–2014. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Eric Chavez3010.000$11.5M$11.5M$12.5MFREE AGENT
Frank Thomas4018.000$9.7MFREE AGENT
Mark Ellis316.000$5.0M$5.0M$5.5M$3.2MFREE AGENT
Alan Embree3816.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
Emil Brown3311.000$1.4MFREE AGENT
Justin Duchscherer307.000$1.2MFREE AGENT$1.8M
Keith Foulke3511.000$700kFREE AGENT
Mike Sweeney3413.000$500kFREE AGENT
Jack Cust297.000$410k$2.8M$2.6MFREE AGENT
Kirk Saarloos296.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Bobby Crosby285.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Huston Street243.000$3.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rich Harden265.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Joe Blanton274.000$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Kiko Calero335.000$1.0MFREE AGENT
Chad Gaudin255.000$923kFREE AGENT
Lenny DiNardo284.000$900kARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Bowen275.000$410kFREE AGENT
Chris Denorfia273.000$400kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Santiago Casilla274.000$400kARB 3FREE AGENT
Donnie Murphy254.000$400kARB 3FREE AGENT
Dana Eveland243.000$395kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Johnson283.000$37kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Meyer264.000ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Murton263.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (26)

PlayerAgeSvc2008200920102011201220132014
Travis Buck241.000$400kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Brown272.000$395kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Sweeney232.000$395kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Hannahan282.000$395kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kurt Suzuki241.000$395kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jerry Blevins241.000$390kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Ziegler280.000$390kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daric Barton221.000$390kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Fernando Hernandez230.000$390kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cliff Pennington240.000$390kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rajai Davis272.000$351kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Gallagher221.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Patterson251.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Fiorentino25
Joey Devine240.171Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wes Bankston24
Greg Smith240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dallas Braden241.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gio Gonzalez220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brooks Conrad280.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Gray260.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gregorio Petit230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos González220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Baisley25
Aaron Cunningham220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Outman230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Athletics 2008; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3