OAK⇄ARI

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$126.4M net +0.8

received +$59.2M+$59.2M ± $75M expected surplus · +$142.4M realized received 13.2 ± 9 expected · 16.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2008 odds 7% → 5% (-1.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carlos GonzálezOF·22y·L/L

+$27.2M+$27.2M± $44M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 5.1± 6 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

Composite #22.0 prospect (Baseball America #22 (2008)) → 0.94/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.94/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Brett AndersonP·20y·L/L

+$25.9M+$25.9M± $44M exp surplusrealized +$113.6M 3.9± 6 exp WARrealized 11.5

Prior

Composite #36.0 prospect (Baseball America #36 (2008)) → 0.71/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.71/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Aaron CunninghamOF·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#185 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Chris Carter1B/DH·21y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#455 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Greg SmithP·24y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$10.4M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

#171 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Dana EvelandP·24y·L/L

+$0.9M+$0.9M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$18.4M 0.6± 2 exp WARrealized 2.5

Prior

#469 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Josh Byrnes net +$126.4M net -0.8

received +$40.8M+$40.8M ± $38M expected surplus · +$268.8M realized received 4.8 ± 5 expected · 15.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2008 odds 9% → 12% (+3.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dan HarenP·27y·R/R

+$40.3M+$40.3M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$270.4M 3.9± 2 exp WARrealized 15.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.9/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

2.61/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Connor RobertsonP·26y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $34M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.9± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#937 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.