OAK⇄DET

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$7.2M net +2.2

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $28M expected surplus · +$7.2M realized received 0.2 ± 4 expected · 2.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2007 odds 14% → 16% (+1.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jack Hannahan3B·27y·L/R

−$3.4M−$3.4M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$7.2M 0.2± 4 exp WARrealized 2.2

Prior

#87 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -9.9/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.04/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.73 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Dave Dombrowski net −$7.2M net -2.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.1 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2007 odds 56% → 52% (-3.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jason PerryOF·26y·L/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#176 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.