SDP⇄OAK

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$5.6M net +1.0

received +$24.8M+$14.4M ± $19M expected surplus · +$8.0M realized received 3.4 ± 2 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2007 odds 29% → 34% (+4.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Milton BradleyOF·29y·B/R

+$25.0M+$14.6M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$8.0M 3.4± 2 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.7/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

2.27/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

OAKOAK Billy Beane net −$5.6M net -1.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $32M expected surplus · +$2.4M realized received 0.9 ± 4 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2007 odds 19% → 16% (-3.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Andrew BrownP·26y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 0.9± 4 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

#204 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.