RRosternomics

Athletics OAK

GM: Billy Beane

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 8 in this regime · payroll 0.87× league · TAB +1.2
+1.2TAB — talent above budget13th/30
+12.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)3rd/30
10.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars2nd/30
-4.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag11th/30
19%dead money %5th/30
0.574win %5th/30
33.7roster fWAR15th/30
+2surplus $M (value vs cost)11th/30
$66Mpayroll $M18th/30

2006: made playoffs · 93–69. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFMark Kotsay 127GJay Payton 46GHiram Bocachica 4G
LFNick Swisher 79GJay Payton 62GBobby Kielty 44G
RFMilton Bradley 94GJay Payton 45GBobby Kielty 31G
SSBobby Crosby 95GMarco Scutaro 69GAntonio Perez 4G
2BMark Ellis 123GMarco Scutaro 37GD'Angelo Jimenez 18G
3BEric Chavez 134GAntonio Perez 27GMarco Scutaro 12G
1BNick Swisher 90GDan Johnson 85GMark Kotsay 4G
STARTERSDan Haren 3.8WARJoe Blanton 3.2WAREsteban Loaiza 2.3WARBarry Zito 2.1WARRich Harden 0.7WAR
CJason Kendall 141GAdam Melhuse 24GJeremy Brown 1G
DHFrank Thomas 135GAntonio Perez 20GAdam Melhuse 13G
BULLPEN Huston Street 37svKiko Calero 23hJustin Duchscherer 17hJoe Kennedy 14hChad Gaudin 11hScott Sauerbeck 5hJay Witasick 2hRon Flores 1h
CJason Kendall 141 · Adam Melhuse 24 · Jeremy Brown 1
1BNick Swisher 90 · Dan Johnson 85 · Mark Kotsay 4
2BMark Ellis 123 · Marco Scutaro 37 · D'Angelo Jimenez 18
3BEric Chavez 134 · Antonio Perez 27 · Marco Scutaro 12
SSBobby Crosby 95 · Marco Scutaro 69 · Antonio Perez 4
LFNick Swisher 79 · Jay Payton 62 · Bobby Kielty 44
CFMark Kotsay 127 · Jay Payton 46 · Hiram Bocachica 4
RFMilton Bradley 94 · Jay Payton 45 · Bobby Kielty 31
DHFrank Thomas 135 · Antonio Perez 20 · Adam Melhuse 13
SPDan Haren 3.8 · Joe Blanton 3.2 · Esteban Loaiza 2.3 · Barry Zito 2.1 · Rich Harden 0.7
BP Huston Street 37 · Kiko Calero 23 · Justin Duchscherer 17 · Joe Kennedy 14 · Chad Gaudin 11 · Scott Sauerbeck 5 · Jay Witasick 2 · Ron Flores 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2006 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Nick Swisher 25 pre-arb 1573.9 0.3 +7.5
Dan Haren 25 arb 343.8 0.6 +6.9
Eric Chavez 28 FA-elig 1373.4 9.5 -2.7
Joe Blanton 25 pre-arb 323.2 0.3 +6.0
Jason Kendall 32 FA-elig 1432.9 11.5 -5.7
Milton Bradley 28 FA-elig 962.6 3.0 +2.2
Frank Thomas 38 FA-elig 1372.4 3.1 +1.7
Huston Street 22 pre-arb 692.3 0.3 +4.3
Esteban Loaiza 34 FA-elig 262.3 6.0 -1.4
Barry Zito 28 FA-elig 342.1 7.9 -3.6
Mark Ellis 29 arb 1242.0 2.2 +1.7
Justin Duchscherer 28 arb 531.5 0.3 +2.6
Kiko Calero 31 arb 701.5 0.8 +2.1
Jay Payton 33 FA-elig 1421.0 4.0 -2.1
Joe Kennedy 27 arb 390.8 2.4 -0.9
Rich Harden 24 arb 90.7 1.2 +0.1
Bobby Crosby 26 arb 960.4 0.8 +0.0
Marco Scutaro 30 arb 1170.3 0.3 +0.3
Bobby Kielty 29 810.2
Ron Flores 26 250.2
Chad Gaudin 23 550.1
Brad Halsey 25 pre-arb 520.1 0.3 -0.1
Dan Johnson 26 pre-arb 910.1 0.3 -0.2
Jason Windsor 23 40.0
Jeremy Brown 26 50.0
Matt Roney 26 30.0
Santiago Casilla 25 20.0 0.3 -0.3
Mike Rouse 26 8-0.0
Doug Clark 30 6-0.1
Adam Melhuse 34 FA-elig 49-0.2 0.7 -1.0
D'Angelo Jimenez↔ TEX 28 FA-elig 8-0.2 0.2 -0.5
Jay Witasick 33 FA-elig 20-0.2 1.0 -1.3
Randy Keisler 30 11-0.2
Scott Sauerbeck↔ CLE 34 FA-elig 22-0.2 0.6 -1.0
Shane Komine 25 2-0.3
Hiram Bocachica 30 8-0.3
Steve Karsay 34 9-0.4
Mark Kotsay 30 FA-elig 129-0.4 7.0 -7.8
Kirk Saarloos 27 arb 35-0.4 0.4 -1.2
Antonio Perez 26 arb 57-1.3 0.3 -2.9

Key additions (new vs 2005)

PlayerfWAR
Milton Bradley2.6
Frank Thomas2.4
Esteban Loaiza2.3
Chad Gaudin0.1
Brad Halsey0.1
Jason Windsor0.0

Key subtractions (gone from 2005)

Player2005 fWAR
Eric Byrnes0.8
Freddie Bynum Jr.0.1
Seth Etherton0.1
Jermaine Clark0.0
Matt Watson-0.0
Octavio Dotel-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2006 payroll
$66.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2006, 2006–2012. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Jason Kendall3210.000$11.5M$7.6MFREE AGENT
Eric Chavez288.000$9.5M$9.5M$11.5M$11.5M$12.5MFREE AGENT
Barry Zito286.000$7.9MFREE AGENT
Mark Kotsay309.000$7.0M$8.0MFREE AGENT
Esteban Loaiza3411.000$6.0M$5.4MFREE AGENT
Jay Payton338.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Frank Thomas3816.000$3.1MFREE AGENT$9.7M
Milton Bradley286.000$3.0M$2.8MFREE AGENT
Jay Witasick3310.000$1.0M$833kFREE AGENT
Adam Melhuse346.000$700k$536kFREE AGENT
Scott Sauerbeck347.000$574kFREE AGENT
D'Angelo Jimenez287.000$214kFREE AGENT
Steve Karsay3413.000FREE AGENT
Hiram Bocachica306.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Joe Kennedy275.000$2.4MFREE AGENT
Mark Ellis294.000$2.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Rich Harden243.000$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kiko Calero313.000$850kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Crosby263.000$800kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Haren253.000$550kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kirk Saarloos274.000$354kARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Duchscherer285.000$344kFREE AGENT
Marco Scutaro304.000$340kARB 3FREE AGENT
Antonio Perez263.000$334kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Kielty295.000FREE AGENT
Matt Roney263.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Gaudin233.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Brad Halsey252.000$346kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Huston Street221.000$340kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Swisher252.000$335kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Johnson261.000$330kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Blanton252.000$327kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Santiago Casilla252.000$327kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Doug Clark30
Randy Keisler30
Mike Rouse260.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Brown26
Ron Flores26
Jason Windsor23
Shane Komine25

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Athletics 2006; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3