RRosternomics

Marlins MIA

GM: Larry Beinfest

Overview

WINDOW ↘ cooling
cheap & winning · year 6 in this regime · payroll 0.82× league · TAB +7.7
+7.7TAB — talent above budget5th/30
+3.7WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)12th/30
8.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars7th/30
-4.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag14th/30
42%dead money %26th/30
0.512win %11th/30
39.4roster fWAR10th/30
+18surplus $M (value vs cost)3rd/30
$59Mpayroll $M18th/30

Roster

CFJuan Pierre 160GJuan Encarnacion 11GChris Aguila 2G
LFMiguel Cabrera 134GJeff Conine 37GChris Aguila 27G
RFJuan Encarnacion 135GJeff Conine 28GChris Aguila 14G
SSÁlex González 124GDamion Easley 30GRobert Andino 17G
2BLuis Castillo 120GDamion Easley 46GMike Lowell 8G
3BMike Lowell 135GMiguel Cabrera 29GDamion Easley 10G
1BCarlos Delgado 141GJeff Conine 45GLenny Harris 1G
STARTERSDontrelle Willis 7.4WARA.J. Burnett 5.1WARJosh Beckett 4.6WARJason Vargas 2.1WARBrian Moehler 1.9WAR
CPaul Lo Duca 128GMatt Treanor 55GJosh Willingham 8G
DHJeff Conine 3GLenny Harris 2GCarlos Delgado 1G
BULLPEN Todd Jones 40svRon Villone 21hGuillermo Mota 14hJim Mecir 13hAntonio Alfonseca 8hNate Bump 2hJohn Riedling 2hPaul Quantrill 1h
CPaul Lo Duca 128 · Matt Treanor 55 · Josh Willingham 8
1BCarlos Delgado 141 · Jeff Conine 45 · Lenny Harris 1
2BLuis Castillo 120 · Damion Easley 46 · Mike Lowell 8
3BMike Lowell 135 · Miguel Cabrera 29 · Damion Easley 10
SSÁlex González 124 · Damion Easley 30 · Robert Andino 17
LFMiguel Cabrera 134 · Jeff Conine 37 · Chris Aguila 27
CFJuan Pierre 160 · Juan Encarnacion 11 · Chris Aguila 2
RFJuan Encarnacion 135 · Jeff Conine 28 · Chris Aguila 14
DHJeff Conine 3 · Lenny Harris 2 · Carlos Delgado 1
SPDontrelle Willis 7.4 · A.J. Burnett 5.1 · Josh Beckett 4.6 · Jason Vargas 2.1 · Brian Moehler 1.9
BP Todd Jones 40 · Ron Villone 21 · Guillermo Mota 14 · Jim Mecir 13 · Antonio Alfonseca 8 · Nate Bump 2 · John Riedling 2 · Paul Quantrill 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2005 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Dontrelle Willis 23 pre-arb 407.4 0.4 +13.6
Miguel Cabrera 22 pre-arb 1585.1 0.4 +9.4
A.J. Burnett 28 FA-elig 325.1 3.6 +6.0
Josh Beckett 25 arb 294.6 2.4 +6.2
Luis Castillo 29 FA-elig 1223.8 5.2 +2.0
Carlos Delgado 33 FA-elig 1443.3 4.0 +2.2
Todd Jones 37 FA-elig 682.4 1.1 +3.5
Jason Vargas 22 182.1 0.3 +3.6
Brian Moehler 33 FA-elig 371.9 0.4 +3.2
Juan Pierre 27 arb 1621.6 3.7 -0.8
Juan Encarnacion 29 FA-elig 1411.5 4.4 -1.6
Paul Lo Duca 33 FA-elig 1321.3 4.7 -2.2
Jeremy Hermida 21 230.8
Damion Easley 35 FA-elig 1020.6 0.8 +0.4
Guillermo Mota 31 FA-elig 560.6 2.6 -1.5
Jim Mecir 35 FA-elig 520.4 1.1 -0.3
Álex González 28 FA-elig 1300.3 3.4 -2.8
Lenny Harris 40 FA-elig 830.3 0.4 +0.1
Ron Villone↔ SEA 35 FA-elig 270.3 0.7 -0.2
Josh Johnson 21 40.1
Josh Willingham 26 160.1 0.3 -0.1
Mike Lowell 31 FA-elig 1500.1 7.5 -7.4
Chris Resop 22 150.0 0.3 -0.2
Frank Castillo 36 10.0
Travis Smith 32 120.0
Ismael Valdez 31 FA-elig 140.0 1.5 -1.5
Yorman Bazardo 20 1-0.0
Mike Mordecai 37 2-0.0
Jim Crowell 31 4-0.1
Matt Treanor 29 pre-arb 58-0.1 0.3 -0.4
Ryan Jorgensen 26 4-0.1
Antonio Alfonseca 33 FA-elig 33-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Matt Perisho↔ BOS 30 FA-elig 24-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Josh Wilson 24 11-0.1
Paul Quantrill↔ NYY 36 FA-elig 6-0.1 0.4 -0.6
Scott Olsen 21 5-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Jeff Conine 39 FA-elig 131-0.2 3.0 -3.3
Logan Kensing 22 3-0.2
Nate Bump 28 pre-arb 31-0.2 0.4 -0.8
John Riedling 29 arb 29-0.2 0.8 -1.2
Chad Bentz 25 4-0.2
Joe Dillon 29 27-0.2
Randy Messenger 23 29-0.3
Valerio De Los Santos 32 27-0.4
Chris Aguila 26 pre-arb 65-0.4 0.3 -1.1
Al Leiter↔ NYY 39 FA-elig 17-0.4 3.6 -4.4
Robert Andino 21 17-0.5

Key additions (new vs 2004)

PlayerfWAR
Carlos Delgado3.3
Todd Jones2.4
Jason Vargas2.1
Brian Moehler1.9
Jeremy Hermida0.8
Jim Mecir0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2004)

Player2004 fWAR
Carl Pavano5.0
Brad Penny2.6
Armando Benitez1.6
Hee-Seop Choi1.5
Rudy Seanez0.3
Tommy Phelps0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2005 payroll
$58.9M

What the front office was committed to as of 2005, 2005–2011. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (24)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Mike Lowell317.000$7.5MFREE AGENT
Luis Castillo299.000$5.2MFREE AGENT
Paul Lo Duca337.000$4.7MFREE AGENT$3.4M
Juan Encarnacion298.000$4.4MFREE AGENT
Carlos Delgado3312.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
A.J. Burnett286.000$3.6MFREE AGENT
Al Leiter3918.000$3.6MFREE AGENT
Álex González287.000$3.4MFREE AGENT
Jeff Conine3915.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Guillermo Mota316.000$2.6MFREE AGENT
Ismael Valdez3111.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Todd Jones3712.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Jim Mecir3510.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Damion Easley3513.000$750kFREE AGENT
Ron Villone3510.000$666kFREE AGENT
Matt Perisho308.000$456kFREE AGENT
Lenny Harris4017.000$425kFREE AGENT
Brian Moehler339.000$400k$1.5MFREE AGENT
Paul Quantrill3613.000$360kFREE AGENT
Antonio Alfonseca338.000$300kFREE AGENT
Frank Castillo3614.000FREE AGENT
Mike Mordecai3711.000FREE AGENT
Travis Smith327.000FREE AGENT
Valerio De Los Santos327.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (3)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Juan Pierre275.000$3.7MFREE AGENT
Josh Beckett254.000$2.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
John Riedling295.000$750kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (20)

PlayerAgeSvc2005200620072008200920102011
Dontrelle Willis232.000$378kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Cabrera222.000$370kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Bump282.000$360kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Aguila261.000$316kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Treanor291.000$316kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Willingham261.000$316kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Olsen210.000$316kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Resop220.000$316kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Vargas220.000$316kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Crowell31
Ryan Jorgensen26
Josh Wilson240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Bentz251.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Kensing221.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Dillon290.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yorman Bazardo200.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Messenger230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Johnson210.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Andino210.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Hermida210.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Marlins 2005; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3