NYM⇄MIA

NYMNYM Omar Minaya net −$62.4M net +7.4

received −$24.0M−$24.0M ± $19M expected surplus · −$72.8M realized received 4.0 ± 2 expected · 6.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2006 odds 51% → 66% (+14.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carlos Delgado1B·34y·L/R

−$23.8M−$23.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$72.8M 4.0± 2 exp WARrealized 6.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.9/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

2.76/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.97 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Larry Beinfest net +$62.4M net -7.4

received +$28.0M+$28.0M ± $52M expected surplus · −$10.4M realized received 9.2 ± 6 expected · -1.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2006 odds 18% → 11% (-7.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike Jacobs1B·25y·L/R

+$16.8M+$16.8M± $41M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 5.3± 5 exp WARrealized -1.2

Prior

#1156 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 5.5/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.96/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Yusmeiro PetitP·21y·R/R

+$8.7M+$8.7M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 2.6± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

Composite #69.0 prospect (Baseball America #69 (2006)) → 0.47/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.47/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Grant Psomas3B·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#434 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.