MIA⇄NYY

MIAMIA Larry Beinfest net +$6.4M net +0.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2006 odds 11% → 11% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ben JulianelP·26y·S/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#374 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net −$6.4M net -0.2

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $7M expected surplus · −$6.4M realized received 0.6 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2006 odds 51% → 50% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ron VilloneP·36y·L/L

−$1.5M−$1.5M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.29/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

0.56/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.