RRosternomics

Marlins MIA

GM: Larry Beinfest

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 7 in this regime · payroll 0.21× league · TAB +17.6
+17.6TAB — talent above budget1st/30
+16.6WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)1st/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars16th/30
-4.1dead WAR — sub-replacement drag12th/30
41%dead money %23rd/30
0.481win %18th/30
32.4roster fWAR17th/30
+46surplus $M (value vs cost)1st/30
$16Mpayroll $M30th/30

Roster

CFReggie Abercrombie 87GAlfredo Amezaga 75GEric Reed 31G
LFJosh Willingham 132GCody Ross 41GChris Aguila 15G
RFJeremy Hermida 85GJoe Borchard 55GCody Ross 34G
SSHanley Ramirez 154GAlfredo Amezaga 11GRobert Andino 9G
2BDan Uggla 151GAlfredo Amezaga 23GJason Wood 1G
3BMiguel Cabrera 157GWes Helms 24GAlfredo Amezaga 4G
1BMike Jacobs 124GWes Helms 88GMiguel Olivo 5G
STARTERSDontrelle Willis 3.7WARScott Olsen 2.6WARJosh Johnson 2.4WARAníbal Sánchez 1.7WARRicky Nolasco 1.4WAR
CMiguel Olivo 124GMatt Treanor 61GPaul Hoover 3G
DHJoe Borchard 3GJosh Willingham 3GChris Aguila 1G
BULLPEN Joe Borowski 36svTaylor Tankersley 22hLogan Kensing 14hMatt Herges 9hRandy Messenger 9hRenyel Pinto 3hChris Resop 2hYusmeiro Petit 0h
CMiguel Olivo 124 · Matt Treanor 61 · Paul Hoover 3
1BMike Jacobs 124 · Wes Helms 88 · Miguel Olivo 5
2BDan Uggla 151 · Alfredo Amezaga 23 · Jason Wood 1
3BMiguel Cabrera 157 · Wes Helms 24 · Alfredo Amezaga 4
SSHanley Ramirez 154 · Alfredo Amezaga 11 · Robert Andino 9
LFJosh Willingham 132 · Cody Ross 41 · Chris Aguila 15
CFReggie Abercrombie 87 · Alfredo Amezaga 75 · Eric Reed 31
RFJeremy Hermida 85 · Joe Borchard 55 · Cody Ross 34
DHJoe Borchard 3 · Josh Willingham 3 · Chris Aguila 1
SPDontrelle Willis 3.7 · Scott Olsen 2.6 · Josh Johnson 2.4 · Aníbal Sánchez 1.7 · Ricky Nolasco 1.4
BP Joe Borowski 36 · Taylor Tankersley 22 · Logan Kensing 14 · Matt Herges 9 · Randy Messenger 9 · Renyel Pinto 3 · Chris Resop 2 · Yusmeiro Petit 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2006 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Miguel Cabrera 23 arb 1586.3 0.5 +12.1
Hanley Ramirez 22 pre-arb 1584.4 0.3 +8.4
Dan Uggla 26 pre-arb 1544.2 0.3 +8.1
Dontrelle Willis 24 arb 353.7 4.3 +3.0
Scott Olsen 22 322.6 0.3 +5.0
Josh Johnson 22 pre-arb 312.4 0.3 +4.4
Josh Willingham 27 pre-arb 1421.9 0.3 +3.5
Wes Helms 30 FA-elig 1401.8 0.8 +2.9
Aníbal Sánchez 22 181.7
Miguel Olivo 27 arb 1271.5 0.7 +2.2
Ricky Nolasco 23 pre-arb 351.4 0.3 +2.4
Alfredo Amezaga 28 arb 1321.1 0.3 +1.9
Joe Borowski 35 FA-elig 720.7 0.3 +1.1
Matt Treanor 30 pre-arb 670.5 0.3 +0.7
Taylor Tankersley 23 490.4
Jason Wood 36 120.3
Mike Jacobs 25 pre-arb 1360.3 0.3 +0.3
Matt Herges 36 FA-elig 660.3 0.6 +0.0
Carlos Martinez 24 pre-arb 120.2 0.3 +0.1
Joe Borchard↔ SEA 27 arb 1080.2 0.3 +0.0
Randy Messenger 24 pre-arb 590.1 0.3 -0.1
Jose Garcia 21 50.1
Todd Wellemeyer↔ KCR 27 arb 180.1 0.1 -0.0
Brian Moehler 34 FA-elig 310.1 1.5 -1.4
Logan Kensing 23 380.1
Paul Hoover 30 40.0
Jeff Fulchino 26 1-0.0
Chris Resop 23 pre-arb 22-0.1 0.3 -0.4
Eric Reed 25 pre-arb 42-0.1 0.3 -0.5
Renyel Pinto 23 27-0.1
Sergio Mitre 25 arb 16-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Yusmeiro Petit 21 15-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Franklyn German 26 12-0.2
Chris Aguila 27 pre-arb 47-0.2 0.3 -0.8
Robert Andino 22 11-0.3
Jason Vargas 23 pre-arb 12-0.4 0.3 -1.1
Matt Cepicky 28 9-0.4
Cody Ross↔ CIN 25 arb 91-0.5 0.3 -1.3
Jeremy Hermida 22 pre-arb 99-0.6 0.3 -1.6
Reggie Abercrombie 25 pre-arb 111-1.0 0.3 -2.3

Key additions (new vs 2005)

PlayerfWAR
Hanley Ramirez4.4
Dan Uggla4.2
Wes Helms1.8
Aníbal Sánchez1.7
Miguel Olivo1.5
Ricky Nolasco1.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2005)

Player2005 fWAR
A.J. Burnett5.1
Josh Beckett4.6
Luis Castillo3.8
Carlos Delgado3.3
Todd Jones2.4
Juan Pierre1.6

Current & Historical Payroll

2006 payroll
$15.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2006, 2006–2012. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Brian Moehler3410.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Wes Helms308.000$800kFREE AGENT$2.1M$950k$950k$1.0M
Matt Herges367.000$600kFREE AGENT
Joe Borowski3511.000$327kFREE AGENT
Jason Wood368.000$390k$390kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Dontrelle Willis243.000$4.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Olivo274.000$700kARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Cabrera233.000$472kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alfredo Amezaga284.000$340kARB 3FREE AGENT
Sergio Mitre253.000$330kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Borchard274.000$314kARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Ross253.000$295kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Todd Wellemeyer273.000$136kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Hoover305.000FREE AGENT
Franklyn German264.000ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (25)

PlayerAgeSvc2006200720082009201020112012
Josh Willingham272.000$327kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Reggie Abercrombie250.000$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Treanor302.000$327kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Jacobs251.000$327kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hanley Ramirez221.000$327kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Johnson221.000$327kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Olsen221.000$327kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Aguila272.000$327kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eric Reed250.000$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yusmeiro Petit210.000$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy Messenger241.000$327kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Resop231.000$327kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ricky Nolasco230.000$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Vargas231.000$327kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Uggla260.000$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeremy Hermida221.000$327kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Martinez240.000$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Cepicky28
Renyel Pinto230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Kensing232.000ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aníbal Sánchez220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Andino221.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Fulchino260.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Taylor Tankersley230.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose Garcia21

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Marlins 2006; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3