RRosternomics
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Marlins MIA

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GM: Larry Beinfest

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 5 in this regime · payroll 0.72× league · TAB +4.6
+4.6TAB — talent above budget13th/30
+5.3WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)13th/30
9.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars5th/30
-5.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag20th/30
20%dead money %8th/30
0.512win %15th/30
34.8roster fWAR17th/30
+15surplus $M (value vs cost)3rd/30
$48Mpayroll $M19th/30

Roster

CFJuan Pierre 162G
LFJeff Conine 83GMiguel Cabrera 59GAbraham M. Nunez 28G
RFJuan Encarnacion 125GMiguel Cabrera 100GChris Aguila 14G
SSÁlex González 158GDamion Easley 15GMike Mordecai 3G
2BLuis Castillo 148GDamion Easley 25GMike Mordecai 4G
3BMike Lowell 154GMike Mordecai 19GDamion Easley 6G
1BJeff Conine 57GDamion Easley 18GWil Cordero 13G
STARTERSCarl Pavano 5.0WARDontrelle Willis 3.6WARJosh Beckett 3.4WARA.J. Burnett 2.8WARIsmael Valdez 0.1WAR
CPaul Lo Duca 130GMike Redmond 79GRamon Castro 31G
DHDamion Easley 3GMike Lowell 3GLenny Harris 2G
BULLPEN★ Armando Benítez 47svGuillermo Mota 29hDavid Weathers 11hMatt Perisho 10hNate Bump 5hBilly Koch 4hRudy Seanez 4hBen Howard 2h
CPaul Lo Duca 130 · Mike Redmond 79 · Ramon Castro 31
1BJeff Conine 57 · Damion Easley 18 · Wil Cordero 13
2BLuis Castillo 148 · Damion Easley 25 · Mike Mordecai 4
3BMike Lowell 154 · Mike Mordecai 19 · Damion Easley 6
SSÁlex González 158 · Damion Easley 15 · Mike Mordecai 3
LFJeff Conine 83 · Miguel Cabrera 59 · Abraham M. Nunez 28
CFJuan Pierre 162
RFJuan Encarnacion 125 · Miguel Cabrera 100 · Chris Aguila 14
DHDamion Easley 3 · Mike Lowell 3 · Lenny Harris 2
SPCarl Pavano 5.0 · Dontrelle Willis 3.6 · Josh Beckett 3.4 · A.J. Burnett 2.8 · Ismael Valdez 0.1
BP★ Armando Benítez 47 · Guillermo Mota 29 · David Weathers 11 · Matt Perisho 10 · Nate Bump 5 · Billy Koch 4 · Rudy Seanez 4 · Ben Howard 2

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2004 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Carl Pavano 28 FA-elig 315.0 3.8 +4.7
Mike Lowell 30 FA-elig 1584.0 6.5 +0.4
Juan Pierre 26 arb 1624.0 2.4 +4.4
Dontrelle Willis 22 pre-arb 423.6 0.4 +5.9
Josh Beckett 24 arb 263.4 1.5 +4.3
Luis Castillo 28 FA-elig 1503.2 4.7 +0.9
A.J. Burnett 27 arb 202.8 2.5 +2.4
Brad Penny↔ LAD 26 arb 212.6 3.3 +1.2
Miguel Cabrera 21 pre-arb 1602.3 0.3 +3.7
Jeff Conine 38 FA-elig 1401.6 3.0 -0.3
Armando Benitez 31 FA-elig 641.6 3.5 -0.8
Hee-Seop Choi↔ LAD 25 pre-arb 951.5 0.2 +2.4
Álex González 27 FA-elig 1591.0 2.8 -1.0
Damion Easley 34 FA-elig 980.8 0.3 +1.1
Juan Encarnacion↔ LAD 28 FA-elig 490.6 1.3 -0.2
Paul Lo Duca↔ LAD 32 FA-elig 520.6 1.5 -0.5
Guillermo Mota↔ LAD 30 arb 260.5 0.5 +0.5
Rudy Seanez↔ KCR 35 – 230.3 – –
Tommy Phelps 30 pre-arb 190.1 0.3 -0.1
Chad Fox 33 FA-elig 120.1 1.2 -1.0
Ismael Valdez↔ SDP 30 FA-elig 110.1 0.3 -0.1
Mike Redmond 33 FA-elig 810.0 0.8 -0.8
Josh Willingham 25 – 120.0 – –
David Weathers↔ HOU 34 FA-elig 8-0.0 0.5 -0.5
Larry Sutton 34 – 8-0.0 – –
Nate Bump 27 pre-arb 50-0.0 0.3 -0.3
Chris Aguila 25 – 29-0.0 – –
Matt Treanor 28 – 29-0.0 – –
Matt Perisho 29 FA-elig 66-0.0 0.3 -0.4
Mike Neu 26 – 1-0.1 – –
Michael Tejera↔ TEX 27 – 2-0.1 – –
Franklyn Gracesqui 24 – 7-0.1 – –
Billy Koch↔ CHW 29 arb 23-0.1 3.1 -3.3
Toby Borland 35 – 18-0.1 – –
Josias Manzanillo 36 – 26-0.3 – –
Ben Howard 25 – 31-0.3 – –
Abraham M. Nunez↔ KCR 27 pre-arb 58-0.3 0.1 -0.7
Darren Oliver↔ HOU 33 FA-elig 18-0.4 0.5 -1.1
Mike Mordecai 36 FA-elig 69-0.4 0.4 -1.1
Ramon Castro 28 arb 32-0.4 0.4 -1.1
Lenny Harris 39 FA-elig 79-0.4 0.4 -1.1
Wil Cordero 32 FA-elig 27-0.5 0.6 -1.4
Aaron Small 32 – 7-0.5 – –
Logan Kensing 21 – 5-0.5 – –
Justin Wayne 25 pre-arb 19-0.6 0.3 -1.3

Key additions (new vs 2003)

PlayerfWAR
Armando Benitez1.6
Hee-Seop Choi1.5
Damion Easley0.8
Paul Lo Duca0.6
Guillermo Mota0.5
Rudy Seanez0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2003)

Player2003 fWAR
Ivan Rodriguez4.5
Derrek Lee3.8
Mark Redman3.4
Braden Looper1.3
Ugueth Urbina1.1
Tim Spooneybarger0.7

Current & Historical Payroll

2004 payroll
$48.0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2004, 2004–2010. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (23)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Mike Lowell306.000$6.5M$7.5MFREE AGENT
Luis Castillo288.000$4.7M$5.2MFREE AGENT
Carl Pavano286.000$3.8MFREE AGENT
Armando Benitez3110.000$3.5MFREE AGENT$6.5M
Jeff Conine3814.000$3.0M$3.0MFREE AGENT
Álex González276.000$2.8M$3.4MFREE AGENT
Paul Lo Duca326.000$1.5M$4.7MFREE AGENT$3.4M
Juan Encarnacion287.000$1.3M$4.4MFREE AGENT
Chad Fox337.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Mike Redmond336.000$840kFREE AGENT
Wil Cordero3212.000$600kFREE AGENT
Darren Oliver3311.000$482kFREE AGENT
David Weathers3413.000$477kFREE AGENT
Mike Mordecai3610.000$425kFREE AGENT
Lenny Harris3916.000$400k$425kFREE AGENT
Matt Perisho297.000$325k$456kFREE AGENT
Damion Easley3412.000$300k$750kFREE AGENT
Ismael Valdez3010.000$259k$1.5MFREE AGENT
Toby Borland3510.000—FREE AGENT
Josias Manzanillo3613.000—FREE AGENT
Rudy Seanez3515.000—FREE AGENT
Aaron Small3210.000—FREE AGENT
Larry Sutton347.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Brad Penny264.000$3.3MARB 3FREE AGENT
Billy Koch295.000$3.1MFREE AGENT
A.J. Burnett275.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Juan Pierre264.000$2.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Beckett243.000$1.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Guillermo Mota305.000$492kFREE AGENT
Ramon Castro285.000$400kFREE AGENT
Michael Tejera275.000—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (14)

PlayerAgeSvc2004200520062007200820092010
Dontrelle Willis221.000$354kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Cabrera211.000$320kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tommy Phelps301.000$308kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Bump271.000$305kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Wayne252.000$301kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hee-Seop Choi252.000$234kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Abraham M. Nunez272.000$149kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Treanor280.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ben Howard25–—
Mike Neu261.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Franklyn Gracesqui24–—
Josh Willingham250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Aguila250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Kensing210.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Marlins 2004; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.