RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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Overview

REBUILD ↗ rising
cheap & losing · year 4 in this regime · payroll 0.63× league · TAB -1.5
-1.5TAB — talent above budget17th/30
-8.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)22nd/30
5.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars22nd/30
-6.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag23rd/30
27%dead money %8th/30
0.420win %26th/30
27.2roster fWAR18th/30
+9surplus $M (value vs cost)9th/30
$83Mpayroll $M25th/30

Roster

CFBilly Hamilton 137GScott Schebler 15GPhillip Ervin 9G
LFAdam Duvall 151GPatrick Kivlehan 11GScooter Gennett 9G
RFScott Schebler 120GPatrick Kivlehan 29GJesse Winker 25G
SSZack Cozart 112GJosé Peraza 55GArismendy Alcántara 6G
2BScooter Gennett 99GJosé Peraza 77GArismendy Alcántara 10G
3BEugenio Suárez 153GScooter Gennett 10GPatrick Kivlehan 7G
1BJoey Votto 162GPatrick Kivlehan 12GAdam Duvall 3G
STARTERSLuis Castillo 1.7WARSal Romano 1.2WARHomer Bailey 1.0WARScott Feldman 0.4WARRobert Stephenson 0.3WAR
CTucker Barnhart 110GDevin Mesoraco 40GStuart Turner 28G
DHScooter Gennett 3GDevin Mesoraco 2GAdam Duvall 2G
BULLPEN★ Raisel Iglesias 28svMichael Lorenzen 18hWandy Peralta 16hDrew Storen 6hKevin Shackelford 3hAustin Brice 1hCody Reed 1hAriel Hernández 0h
CTucker Barnhart 110 · Devin Mesoraco 40 · Stuart Turner 28
1BJoey Votto 162 · Patrick Kivlehan 12 · Adam Duvall 3
2BScooter Gennett 99 · José Peraza 77 · Arismendy Alcántara 10
3BEugenio Suárez 153 · Scooter Gennett 10 · Patrick Kivlehan 7
SSZack Cozart 112 · José Peraza 55 · Arismendy Alcántara 6
LFAdam Duvall 151 · Patrick Kivlehan 11 · Scooter Gennett 9
CFBilly Hamilton 137 · Scott Schebler 15 · Phillip Ervin 9
RFScott Schebler 120 · Patrick Kivlehan 29 · Jesse Winker 25
DHScooter Gennett 3 · Devin Mesoraco 2 · Adam Duvall 2
SPLuis Castillo 1.7 · Sal Romano 1.2 · Homer Bailey 1.0 · Scott Feldman 0.4 · Robert Stephenson 0.3
BP★ Raisel Iglesias 28 · Michael Lorenzen 18 · Wandy Peralta 16 · Drew Storen 6 · Kevin Shackelford 3 · Austin Brice 1 · Cody Reed 1 · Ariel Hernández 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2017 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Joey Votto 33 FA-elig 1626.2 22.0 -1.0
Zack Cozart 31 FA-elig 1224.2 5.3 +8.8
Eugenio Suárez 25 arb 1563.9 0.6 +12.7
Adam Duvall 28 arb 1572.7 0.6 +8.7
Scooter Gennett 27 arb 1412.3 2.5 +5.4
Raisel Iglesias 27 pre-arb 632.0 4.2 +2.4
Billy Hamilton 26 arb 1391.8 2.6 +3.4
Luis Castillo 24 – 151.7 0.3 +5.3
Scott Schebler 26 pre-arb 1411.5 0.5 +4.5
Sal Romano 23 – 161.2 0.2 +3.9
Tucker Barnhart 26 arb 1211.2 0.6 +3.4
Homer Bailey 31 FA-elig 181.0 19.0 -15.6
Jesse Winker 23 – 470.9 0.2 +2.9
Michael Lorenzen 25 pre-arb 730.8 0.6 +2.2
Blake Wood↔ ANA 31 FA-elig 550.5 1.0 +0.8
Wandy Peralta 25 pre-arb 690.4 0.5 +1.0
Scott Feldman 34 FA-elig 210.4 2.3 -1.0
Tyler Mahle 22 – 40.4 0.1 +1.2
Robert Stephenson 24 pre-arb 260.3 0.5 +0.4
Deck McGuire 28 – 60.2 0.1 +0.8
Asher Wojciechowski 28 pre-arb 250.2 0.4 +0.2
Kevin Shackelford 28 pre-arb 260.1 0.2 +0.0
Brandon Finnegan 24 arb 50.0 0.6 -0.4
Jackson Stephens 23 – 70.0 0.1 -0.0
Jake Buchanan 27 – 50.0 0.1 -0.0
Phillip Ervin 24 – 28-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Luke Farrell↔ KCR 26 – 9-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Zach Vincej 26 – 9-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Devin Mesoraco 29 FA-elig 56-0.0 7.3 -7.4
Austin Brice 25 pre-arb 22-0.0 0.5 -0.7
José Peraza 23 pre-arb 143-0.1 0.5 -0.7
Keury Mella 23 – 2-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Alejandro Chacin 24 – 6-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Drew Storen 29 FA-elig 58-0.1 3.0 -3.4
Patrick Kivlehan 27 pre-arb 115-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Chad Wallach 25 – 6-0.2 0.1 -0.9
Rookie Davis 24 pre-arb 7-0.2 0.5 -1.3
Barrett Astin 25 pre-arb 6-0.3 0.5 -1.5
Lisalverto Bonilla 27 – 10-0.3 0.1 -1.1
Cody Reed 24 pre-arb 12-0.3 0.5 -1.6
Ariel Hernández 25 pre-arb 19-0.4 0.2 -1.5
Tim Adleman 29 pre-arb 30-0.4 0.5 -1.8
Tony Cingrani↔ LAD 27 arb 25-0.5 1.0 -2.7
Arismendy Alcántara 25 arb 70-0.7 0.5 -2.8
Bronson Arroyo 40 FA-elig 15-0.8 0.5 -3.1
Stuart Turner 25 pre-arb 37-0.9 0.5 -3.7
Amir Garrett 25 – 16-1.3 0.3 -4.8

Key additions (new vs 2016)

PlayerfWAR
Scooter Gennett2.3
Luis Castillo1.7
Sal Romano1.2
Jesse Winker0.9
Scott Feldman0.4
Tyler Mahle0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2016)

Player2016 fWAR
Jay Bruce1.5
Dan Straily0.6
Steve Selsky0.2
John Lamb0.2
Hernan Iribarren0.2
Daniel Wright-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2017 payroll
$82.9M
2018 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2017, 2017–2023. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2017; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (5)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Joey Votto339.027$22.0MFREE AGENT
Homer Bailey318.017$19.0MFREE AGENT
Drew Storen296.140$3.0MFREE AGENT
Scott Feldman3410.091$2.3MFREE AGENT
Bronson Arroyo4013.150$535kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Devin Mesoraco295.028$7.3MFREE AGENT
Zack Cozart315.084$5.3MFREE AGENT
Billy Hamilton263.028$2.6MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scooter Gennett273.071$2.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Wood314.131$974kARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Cingrani273.088$971kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lisalverto Bonilla273.027$129kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (35)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Raisel Iglesias271.154$4.2MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eugenio Suárez252.061$595kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Duvall281.096$578kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tucker Barnhart262.075$575kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Finnegan241.107$567kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Lorenzen251.159$555kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Schebler260.132$540kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Peraza230.141$540kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Arismendy Alcántara251.098$538kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Reed240.107$537kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rookie Davis240.065$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stuart Turner251.000$535kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wandy Peralta250.031$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Robert Stephenson240.036$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Brice250.042$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Patrick Kivlehan270.011$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Barrett Astin250.000$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Adleman290.155$494kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Asher Wojciechowski280.114$351kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Castillo240.000$295kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Amir Garrett250.000$281kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jesse Winker230.000$234kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sal Romano230.000$231kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kevin Shackelford280.069$199kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ariel Hernández250.063$184kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phillip Ervin240.000$167kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alejandro Chacin24–$117k
Tyler Mahle220.000$105kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chad Wallach250.000$102kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jackson Stephens230.000$99kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Vincej260.000$91kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luke Farrell260.000$79kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jake Buchanan270.137$67kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Deck McGuire280.000$58kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keury Mella230.000$58kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2017; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.