RRosternomics
𝕏

Reds CIN

‹ ›

GM: Jim Bowden

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.83× league · TAB -15.0
-15.0TAB — talent above budget28th/30
-10.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)26th/30
1.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars29th/30
-7.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag26th/30
41%dead money %23rd/30
0.426win %24th/30
16.9roster fWAR27th/30
-34surplus $M (value vs cost)25th/30
$57Mpayroll $M18th/30

Roster

CFReggie Taylor 49GKen Griffey Jr. 43GAustin Kearns 40G
LFAdam Dunn 99GDernell Stenson 18GRussell Branyan 17G
RFAustin Kearns 51GRuben Mateo 39GWily Mo Peña 14G
SSBarry Larkin 60GRay Olmedo 51GFelipe López 50G
2BD'Angelo Jimenez 141GJuan Castro 56GAaron Boone 19G
3BJuan Castro 30GBrandon Larson 24GTim Hummel 20G
1BSean Casey 144GAdam Dunn 19GRussell Branyan 14G
STARTERSPaul Wilson 1.3WARJohn Riedling 1.1WARJohn Bale 0.5WARAaron Harang 0.5WARRyan Dempster 0.4WAR
CJason LaRue 114GCorky Miller 11GDane Sardinha 1G
DHKen Griffey Jr. 3GAdam Dunn 2GRussell Branyan 1G
BULLPEN★ Chris Reitsma 12svRyan Wagner 6hPhil Norton 5hBrian Reith 4hScott Randall 2hJuan Cerros 0hDan Serafini 0hJosias Manzanillo 0h
CJason LaRue 114 · Corky Miller 11 · Dane Sardinha 1
1BSean Casey 144 · Adam Dunn 19 · Russell Branyan 14
2BD'Angelo Jimenez 141 · Juan Castro 56 · Aaron Boone 19
3BJuan Castro 30 · Brandon Larson 24 · Tim Hummel 20
SSBarry Larkin 60 · Ray Olmedo 51 · Felipe López 50
LFAdam Dunn 99 · Dernell Stenson 18 · Russell Branyan 17
CFReggie Taylor 49 · Ken Griffey Jr. 43 · Austin Kearns 40
RFAustin Kearns 51 · Ruben Mateo 39 · Wily Mo Peña 14
DHKen Griffey Jr. 3 · Adam Dunn 2 · Russell Branyan 1
SPPaul Wilson 1.3 · John Riedling 1.1 · John Bale 0.5 · Aaron Harang 0.5 · Ryan Dempster 0.4
BP★ Chris Reitsma 12 · Ryan Wagner 6 · Phil Norton 5 · Brian Reith 4 · Scott Randall 2 · Juan Cerros 0 · Dan Serafini 0 · Josias Manzanillo 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2003 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jose Guillen↔ OAK 27 – 913.2 – –
D'Angelo Jimenez↔ CHW 25 arb 731.8 0.2 +3.0
Jason LaRue 29 arb 1181.7 1.2 +1.8
Adam Dunn 23 pre-arb 1161.6 0.4 +2.5
Aaron Boone↔ NYY 30 FA-elig 1061.6 2.5 +0.3
Ken Griffey Jr. 33 FA-elig 531.5 12.5 -9.8
Paul Wilson 30 FA-elig 291.3 0.5 +1.9
Russell Branyan 27 arb 741.2 0.4 +1.7
John Riedling 27 arb 551.1 0.3 +1.6
Ryan Freel 27 – 431.0 – –
Austin Kearns 23 pre-arb 821.0 0.3 +1.3
Barry Larkin 39 FA-elig 700.8 9.0 -7.5
Juan Castro 31 FA-elig 1130.8 0.8 +0.6
Sean Casey 28 FA-elig 1470.7 5.6 -4.4
Scott Randall 27 – 150.6 – –
Aaron Harang↔ OAK 25 – 90.5 – –
Jose Acevedo 25 – 50.5 – –
John Bale 29 – 100.5 – –
Dernell Stenson 25 – 370.5 – –
Scott Sullivan↔ CHW 32 FA-elig 500.4 2.2 -1.4
Gabe White↔ NYY 31 FA-elig 340.4 2.5 -1.8
Ryan Dempster 26 arb 240.4 3.2 -2.6
Scott Williamson↔ BOS 27 arb 420.3 1.0 -0.5
Ryan Wagner 20 – 170.3 – –
Chris Reitsma 25 – 570.3 – –
Phil Norton↔ CHC 27 – 170.2 – –
Todd Van Poppel↔ TEX 31 FA-elig 90.2 1.4 -1.1
Seth Etherton 26 – 70.1 – –
Kent Mercker↔ ATL 35 FA-elig 490.1 0.4 -0.2
Corky Miller 27 – 140.1 – –
Juan Cerros 26 – 110.1 – –
Mark Watson 29 – 20.0 – –
Josh Hall 22 – 60.0 – –
Matt Belisle 23 – 60.0 – –
Jimmy Haynes 30 FA-elig 18-0.0 2.5 -2.5
Danny Graves 29 FA-elig 30-0.0 5.0 -5.1
Dane Sardinha 24 – 1-0.0 – –
Jim Chamblee 28 – 2-0.0 – –
Felix Heredia↔ NYY 28 FA-elig 57-0.1 0.5 -0.6
Joe Valentine 23 – 2-0.1 – –
Mark Budzinski 29 – 4-0.1 – –
Jimmy Anderson 27 arb 8-0.2 0.6 -0.9
Joey Hamilton 32 – 3-0.2 – –
Dan Serafini 29 – 11-0.2 – –
Eric Valent 26 – 18-0.2 – –
Reggie Taylor 26 arb 100-0.2 0.3 -0.7
Kelly Stinnett↔ PHI 33 FA-elig 60-0.2 1.2 -1.5
Wily Mo Peña 21 pre-arb 80-0.3 0.8 -1.4
Stephen Smitherman 24 – 21-0.3 – –
Brian Reith 25 – 42-0.4 – –
Josias Manzanillo 35 FA-elig 9-0.5 0.5 -1.4
Jeff Austin 26 – 7-0.6 – –
Tim Hummel 24 – 26-0.6 – –
Brandon Larson 27 pre-arb 32-0.8 0.3 -1.7
Ray Olmedo 22 – 79-0.8 – –
Ruben Mateo 25 arb 74-0.9 0.3 -1.9
Felipe Lopez 23 pre-arb 59-1.0 0.3 -2.1

Key additions (new vs 2002)

PlayerfWAR
D'Angelo Jimenez1.8
Paul Wilson1.3
Ryan Freel1.0
Scott Randall0.6
Aaron Harang0.5
John Bale0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2002)

Player2002 fWAR
Todd Walker2.2
Elmer Dessens1.8
Juan Encarnacion1.1
Jared Fernandez0.6
Jim Brower0.4
Shawn Estes0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2003 payroll
$56.8M

What the front office was committed to as of 2003, 2003–2009. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (18)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Ken Griffey Jr.3314.000$12.5M$12.5M$12.5M$10.5M$8.4M$5.9MFREE AGENT
Barry Larkin3917.000$9.0M$700kFREE AGENT
Sean Casey286.000$5.6M$6.8M$7.8MFREE AGENT
Danny Graves297.000$5.0M$6.0M$3.1MFREE AGENT
Jimmy Haynes308.000$2.5M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Gabe White319.000$2.5M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Aaron Boone306.000$2.5MFREE AGENT
Scott Sullivan328.000$2.2MFREE AGENT
Todd Van Poppel3112.000$1.4M$300kFREE AGENT
Kelly Stinnett339.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Juan Castro318.000$800k$1.0MFREE AGENT$519k$925k$863k
Josias Manzanillo3512.000$500kFREE AGENT
Paul Wilson307.000$500k$3.5M$3.6MFREE AGENT
Felix Heredia287.000$496kFREE AGENT
Kent Mercker3514.000$402kFREE AGENT$1.2M$1.6M$600k
Jose Guillen276.000—FREE AGENT
Joey Hamilton329.000—FREE AGENT
Dan Serafini297.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Ryan Dempster265.000$3.2MFREE AGENT
Jason LaRue294.000$1.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Williamson274.000$1.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Anderson274.000$600kARB 3FREE AGENT
Russell Branyan275.000$395kFREE AGENT
John Riedling273.000$350kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ruben Mateo254.000$340kARB 3FREE AGENT
Reggie Taylor263.000$334kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
D'Angelo Jimenez254.000$172kARB 3FREE AGENT
Seth Etherton263.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Phil Norton273.000—ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Bale294.000—ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (27)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Wily Mo Peña211.000$788kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adam Dunn232.000$400kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Kearns231.000$350kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Felipe Lopez232.000$334kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Larson272.000$308kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Randall27–—
Ryan Freel272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dernell Stenson25–—
Chris Reitsma252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Belisle230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corky Miller272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Watson29–—
Eric Valent262.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brian Reith252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Hummel24–—
Mark Budzinski29–—
Dane Sardinha24–—
Jose Acevedo252.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Austin262.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Valentine230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ray Olmedo220.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Harang251.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Hall22–—
Stephen Smitherman24–—
Ryan Wagner200.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jim Chamblee28–—
Juan Cerros26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 2003; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.