OAK⇄CIN⇄ARI⇄TOR

OAKOAK Billy Beane net +$1.6M net +4.3

received +$16.8M+$16.8M ± $41M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 5.3 ± 5 expected · 4.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved OAK's 2003 odds 13% → 19% (+5.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Erubiel Durazo1B/DH·29y·L/L

+$16.9M+$16.9M± $41M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 5.3± 5 exp WARrealized 4.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.6/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

1.41/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Jim Bowden net −$5.6M net +2.0

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $31M expected surplus · +$18.4M realized received 2.4 ± 4 expected · 5.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2003 odds 1% → 0% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Felipe López2B/SS·23y·B/R

+$7.7M+$7.7M± $31M exp surplusrealized +$18.4M 2.4± 4 exp WARrealized 5.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.47/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Joe Garagiola net +$22.4M net -0.9

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $16M expected surplus · +$24.0M realized received 2.0 ± 2 expected · 3.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2003 odds 9% → 11% (+1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Elmer DessensP·32y·R/R

−$0.5M−$0.5M± $16M exp surplusrealized +$24.0M 2.0± 2 exp WARrealized 3.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

1.40/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TORTOR JP Ricciardi net −$18.4M net -5.4

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.5 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 2003 odds 11% → 14% (+2.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jason Arnold#97P·24y·R/R

+$8.3M+$8.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.5± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

Composite #97.0 prospect (Baseball America #97 (2003)) → 0.42/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.42/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.