DET⇄CIN

DETDET Randy Smith net +$7.2M net +0.2

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 3.2 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2002 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

David Espinosa#90CF·20y·S/R

+$4.4M+$4.4M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.7± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#23 overall draft pick → 0.28/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.28/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Noochie VarnerOF·21y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#303 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jorge Cordova

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Jim Bowden net −$7.2M net -0.2

received +$16.8M+$16.0M ± $17M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 3.0 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2002 odds 4% → 4% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brian MoehlerP·30y·R/R

+$16.7M+$15.5M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 2.8± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.2/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

1.90/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Matt Boone

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.