CLE⇄CIN

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net +$12.8M net +2.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$20.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 4.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2002 odds 3% → 2% (-0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ben Broussard1B·25y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$20.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 4.3

Prior

#65 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Jim Bowden net −$12.8M net -2.4

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $30M expected surplus · +$7.2M realized received 2.5 ± 4 expected · 1.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 2002 odds 3% → 4% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Russell Branyan1B/3B·26y·L/R

+$7.4M+$7.4M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$7.2M 2.5± 4 exp WARrealized 1.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.51/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.