CIN⇄PHI

CINCIN Jim Bowden net +$1.6M net +0.2

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $18M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.2 ± 2 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Reggie TaylorOF·25y·L/R

+$10.0M+$10.0M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#14 overall draft pick → 0.59/yr

Evidence

recent form -3.0/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.39/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Ed Wade net −$1.6M net -0.2

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $18M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.9 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Héctor MercadoP·28y·L/L

+$1.1M+$1.1M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.9± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#349 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.26/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.70 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.