RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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GM: Murray Cook

Overview

WINDOW ↗ rising
cheap & winning · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.8× league · TAB +7.4
+7.4TAB — talent above budget5th/26
+8.4WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)5th/26
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars11th/26
-4.3dead WAR — sub-replacement drag14th/26
56%dead money %26th/26
0.540win %7th/26
38.7roster fWAR8th/26
+3surplus $M (value vs cost)4th/26
$10Mpayroll $M19th/26

Roster

CFEric Davis 125GHerm Winningham 50GEddie Milner 11G
LFKal Daniels 137GHerm Winningham 14GDave Collins 13G
RFPaul O'Neill 114GDave Collins 18GRon Roenicke 10G
SSBarry Larkin 147GDave Concepcion 13GLuis Quinones 10G
2BJeff Treadway 97GRon Oester 49GDave Concepcion 46G
3BChris Sabo 135GLenny Harris 10GDave Concepcion 9G
1BNick Esasky 116GLeon Durham 37GPaul O'Neill 21G
STARTERSDanny Jackson 5.2WARJose Rijo 3.5WARRon Robinson 1.0WARTom Browning 0.8WARNorm Charlton 0.4WAR
CJeff Reed 88GBo Diaz 88GTerry McGriff 32G
BULLPEN★ John Franco 39svRob Murphy 0hFrank Williams 0hRob Dibble 0hTim Birtsas 0hCandy Sierra 0hRandy St. Claire 0hPat Pacillo 0h
CJeff Reed 88 · Bo Diaz 88 · Terry McGriff 32
1BNick Esasky 116 · Leon Durham 37 · Paul O'Neill 21
2BJeff Treadway 97 · Ron Oester 49 · Dave Concepcion 46
3BChris Sabo 135 · Lenny Harris 10 · Dave Concepcion 9
SSBarry Larkin 147 · Dave Concepcion 13 · Luis Quinones 10
LFKal Daniels 137 · Herm Winningham 14 · Dave Collins 13
CFEric Davis 125 · Herm Winningham 50 · Eddie Milner 11
RFPaul O'Neill 114 · Dave Collins 18 · Ron Roenicke 10
SPDanny Jackson 5.2 · Jose Rijo 3.5 · Ron Robinson 1.0 · Tom Browning 0.8 · Norm Charlton 0.4
BP★ John Franco 39 · Rob Murphy 0 · Frank Williams 0 · Rob Dibble 0 · Tim Birtsas 0 · Candy Sierra 0 · Randy St. Claire 0 · Pat Pacillo 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1988 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Barry Larkin 24 pre-arb 1516.3 0.1 +1.8
Danny Jackson 26 arb 355.2 0.4 +1.2
Kal Daniels 24 pre-arb 1405.0 0.2 +1.4
Chris Sabo 26 pre-arb 1374.8 0.1 +1.4
Eric Davis 26 arb 1354.3 0.9 +0.4
Jose Rijo 23 arb 493.5 0.1 +1.0
Paul O'Neill 25 arb 1452.2 0.1 +0.6
Jeff Treadway 25 pre-arb 1031.8 0.1 +0.5
Nick Esasky 28 arb 1221.2 0.5 -0.1
Rob Murphy 28 arb 761.2 0.2 +0.2
John Franco 27 arb 701.1 0.7 -0.3
Rob Dibble 24 pre-arb 371.1 0.1 +0.3
Ron Robinson 26 arb 171.0 0.4 -0.1
Tom Browning 28 arb 410.8 0.4 -0.2
Lenny Harris 23 – 160.6 – –
Jeff Reed↔ WSN 25 arb 490.6 0.0 +0.2
Bo Diaz 35 FA-elig 920.4 0.8 -0.7
Norm Charlton 25 pre-arb 100.4 0.1 +0.1
Ron Oester 32 FA-elig 540.4 0.3 -0.2
Mario Soto 31 FA-elig 140.4 1.2 -1.1
Luis Quinones 26 arb 230.2 0.1 -0.0
Terry McGriff 24 pre-arb 350.1 0.1 -0.0
Keith Brown 24 – 40.1 – –
Van Snider 24 – 110.1 – –
Candy Sierra↔ SDP 21 pre-arb 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Jeff Gray 25 – 50.0 – –
Ken Griffey Sr.↔ ATL 38 FA-elig 250.0 0.1 -0.1
Herm Winningham↔ WSN 26 arb 530.0 0.1 -0.1
Tracy Jones↔ WSN 27 pre-arb 370.0 0.1 -0.1
Dennis Rasmussen↔ SDP 29 arb 11-0.0 0.2 -0.2
Lloyd McClendon 29 pre-arb 72-0.1 0.1 -0.1
Pat Pacillo 24 – 6-0.1 – –
Eddie Milner 33 FA-elig 23-0.1 0.2 -0.3
Marty Brown 25 – 10-0.1 – –
Jack Armstrong 23 – 14-0.1 – –
Tim Birtsas 27 arb 36-0.2 0.1 -0.1
Leon Durham↔ CHC 30 FA-elig 21-0.2 0.6 -0.7
Randy St. Claire↔ WSN 27 arb 10-0.2 0.1 -0.1
Buddy Bell↔ HOU 36 FA-elig 21-0.3 0.2 -0.3
Leo Garcia 25 – 23-0.4 – –
Ron Roenicke 31 – 14-0.4 – –
Frank Williams 30 arb 60-0.5 0.4 -0.6
Pat Perry↔ CHC 29 arb 12-0.5 0.0 -0.2
Dave Concepcion 40 FA-elig 84-0.5 0.4 -0.5
Dave Collins 35 FA-elig 99-0.7 0.2 -0.4

Key additions (new vs 1987)

PlayerfWAR
Danny Jackson5.2
Chris Sabo4.8
Jose Rijo3.5
Rob Dibble1.1
Lenny Harris0.6
Jeff Reed0.6

Key subtractions (gone from 1987)

Player1987 fWAR
Ted Power2.0
Guy Hoffman1.0
Bill Gullickson0.7
Bill Landrum0.6
Jerry Reuss0.4
Tom Hume0.2

Current & Historical Payroll

1988 payroll
$9.5M

What the front office was committed to as of 1988, 1988–1994. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc1988198919901991199219931994
Mario Soto3111.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Bo Diaz3511.000$850k$900kFREE AGENT
Leon Durham308.000$646kFREE AGENT
Dave Concepcion4018.000$370kFREE AGENT
Ron Oester3210.000$290k$650k$650kFREE AGENT
Eddie Milner338.000$250kFREE AGENT
Dave Collins3513.000$175k$225kFREE AGENT
Buddy Bell3616.000$175kFREE AGENT
Ken Griffey Sr.3815.000$133k$320k$350kFREE AGENT
Ron Roenicke317.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (17)

PlayerAgeSvc1988198919901991199219931994
Eric Davis264.000$899kARB 3FREE AGENT
John Franco274.000$675kARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Esasky285.000$460kFREE AGENT
Frank Williams304.000$442kARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Browning284.000$442kARB 3FREE AGENT
Ron Robinson264.000$390kARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Jackson265.000$390kFREE AGENT
Rob Murphy283.000$175kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dennis Rasmussen295.000$162kFREE AGENT
Jose Rijo234.000$128kARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul O'Neill253.000$98kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Herm Winningham264.000$74kARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Quinones265.000$74kFREE AGENT
Tim Birtsas273.000$70kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randy St. Claire274.000$62kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Reed254.000$48kARB 3FREE AGENT
Pat Perry293.000$34kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (18)

PlayerAgeSvc1988198919901991199219931994
Kal Daniels242.000$185kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Barry Larkin242.000$128kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lloyd McClendon291.000$75kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Terry McGriff241.000$66kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Treadway251.000$65kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tracy Jones272.000$65kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Norm Charlton250.000$62kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Dibble240.000$62kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Sabo260.000$62kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Candy Sierra210.000$4kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jack Armstrong230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Keith Brown240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Marty Brown250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Leo Garcia25–—
Jeff Gray250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lenny Harris230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pat Pacillo24–—
Van Snider24–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 1988; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.