HOU⇄CIN

HOUHOU Bill Wood net −$8.0M net +0.6

received +$10.4M+$10.4M ± $8M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 1.7 ± 1 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 1988 odds 3% → 3% (+0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Buddy Bell3B·36y·R/R

+$10.4M+$10.4M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 1.7± 1 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.4/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

1.57/yr blended

Horizon

1.1 control yr × 0.98 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Murray Cook net +$8.0M net -0.6

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $33M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 1988 odds 38% → 35% (-3.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carl GrovomP·25y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $33M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#510 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.