CIN⇄CHC

CINCIN Murray Cook net +$3.2M net +0.4

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $41M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 5 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 1989 odds 4% → 4% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rolando RoomesOF·27y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $41M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 5 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -3.6/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

-0.12/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Jim Frey net −$3.2M net -0.4

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $8M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 1989 odds 22% → 24% (+1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Lloyd McClendonOF·30y·R/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.02/yr blended

Horizon

4.4 control yrs × 0.23 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.