CIN⇄CHW

CINCIN Murray Cook net +$3.2M net +0.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $14M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 1988 odds 32% → 35% (+2.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Darrell Pruitt

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Larry Himes net −$3.2M net -0.5

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $25M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1988 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carl WillisP·27y·L/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

-0.03/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.