KCR⇄CIN

KCRKCR John Schuerholz net +$31.2M net +12.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $19M expected surplus · +$29.6M realized received 1.0 ± 2 expected · 12.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 1988 odds 24% → 23% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff MontgomeryP·26y·R/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$29.6M 1.0± 2 exp WARrealized 12.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Murray Cook net −$31.2M net -12.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 1988 odds 34% → 35% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Van SniderOF·24y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.