SDP⇄CIN

SDPSDP Jack McKeon net +$52.0M net +6.7

received +$17.6M+$17.6M ± $28M expected surplus · +$51.2M realized received 2.7 ± 4 expected · 6.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1988 odds 16% → 27% (+11.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dennis RasmussenP·29y·L/L

+$17.8M+$17.8M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$51.2M 2.7± 4 exp WARrealized 6.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

0.93/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Murray Cook net −$52.0M net -6.7

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 1988 odds 51% → 35% (-16 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Candy SierraP·21y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.