RRosternomics
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Reds CIN

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GM: Bill Bergesch

Overview

WINDOW → steady
cheap & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 0.86× league · TAB +3.4
+3.4TAB — talent above budget9th/26
+4.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)11th/26
7.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars12th/26
-2.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag6th/26
41%dead money %20th/26
0.519win %10th/26
35.8roster fWAR11th/26
+1surplus $M (value vs cost)9th/26
$9Mpayroll $M19th/26

Roster

CFEric Davis 124GTracy Jones 34GLeo Garcia 13G
LFKal Daniels 94GTracy Jones 56GDave Collins 18G
RFDave Parker 142GPaul O'Neill 22GTracy Jones 17G
SSBarry Larkin 119GKurt Stillwell 52GDave Concepcion 2G
2BRon Oester 69GDave Concepcion 59GKurt Stillwell 37G
3BBuddy Bell 142GKurt Stillwell 19GDave Concepcion 13G
1BNick Esasky 93GTerry Francona 56GDave Concepcion 26G
STARTERSRon Robinson 2.5WARTed Power 2.0WARTom Browning 1.6WARGuy Hoffman 1.0WARDennis Rasmussen 0.9WAR
CBo Diaz 137GTerry McGriff 33GLloyd McClendon 12G
BULLPEN★ John Franco 32svRob Murphy 0hFrank Williams 0hPat Perry 0hBill Landrum 0hBill Scherrer 0hJeff Montgomery 0hPaul O'Neill 0h
CBo Diaz 137 · Terry McGriff 33 · Lloyd McClendon 12
1BNick Esasky 93 · Terry Francona 56 · Dave Concepcion 26
2BRon Oester 69 · Dave Concepcion 59 · Kurt Stillwell 37
3BBuddy Bell 142 · Kurt Stillwell 19 · Dave Concepcion 13
SSBarry Larkin 119 · Kurt Stillwell 52 · Dave Concepcion 2
LFKal Daniels 94 · Tracy Jones 56 · Dave Collins 18
CFEric Davis 124 · Tracy Jones 34 · Leo Garcia 13
RFDave Parker 142 · Paul O'Neill 22 · Tracy Jones 17
SPRon Robinson 2.5 · Ted Power 2.0 · Tom Browning 1.6 · Guy Hoffman 1.0 · Dennis Rasmussen 0.9
BP★ John Franco 32 · Rob Murphy 0 · Frank Williams 0 · Pat Perry 0 · Bill Landrum 0 · Bill Scherrer 0 · Jeff Montgomery 0 · Paul O'Neill 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

1987 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Eric Davis 25 arb 1297.1 0.3 +1.7
Kal Daniels 23 pre-arb 1084.4 0.1 +1.2
Bo Diaz 34 FA-elig 1402.7 0.8 -0.1
Ron Robinson 25 arb 482.5 0.2 +0.5
Buddy Bell 35 FA-elig 1432.2 0.9 -0.2
Rob Murphy 27 pre-arb 872.1 0.1 +0.5
Ted Power 32 FA-elig 352.0 0.5 +0.1
Tom Browning 27 arb 341.6 0.3 +0.2
Tracy Jones 26 pre-arb 1171.5 0.1 +0.4
John Franco 26 arb 681.5 0.3 +0.1
Dave Concepcion 39 FA-elig 1041.4 0.3 +0.1
Frank Williams 29 arb 851.1 0.3 +0.0
Nick Esasky 27 arb 1001.1 0.3 +0.0
Guy Hoffman 30 FA-elig 361.0 0.1 +0.2
Barry Larkin 23 pre-arb 1251.0 0.1 +0.2
Dennis Rasmussen↔ NYY 28 arb 70.9 0.0 +0.2
Paul O'Neill 24 pre-arb 840.8 0.1 +0.2
Dave Collins 34 FA-elig 570.8 0.1 +0.1
Bill Gullickson↔ NYY 28 FA-elig 270.7 0.7 -0.5
Bill Landrum 29 – 440.6 – –
Jeff Treadway 24 – 230.5 – –
Jerry Reuss↔ ANA 38 FA-elig 70.4 0.3 -0.2
Pat Perry↔ STL 28 pre-arb 120.3 0.0 +0.1
Tom Hume↔ PHI 34 FA-elig 110.2 0.0 +0.0
Terry McGriff 23 pre-arb 340.1 0.1 -0.0
Ron Oester 31 FA-elig 690.1 0.8 -0.7
Bill Scherrer 29 – 230.1 – –
Jeff Montgomery 25 – 140.1 – –
Leo Garcia 24 – 31-0.1 – –
Pat Pacillo 23 – 13-0.1 – –
Sal Butera↔ MIN 34 FA-elig 5-0.1 0.0 -0.0
Max Venable 30 – 7-0.1 – –
Lloyd McClendon 28 – 45-0.2 – –
Mario Soto 30 FA-elig 6-0.3 1.2 -1.3
Dave Parker 36 FA-elig 153-0.6 1.1 -1.3
Kurt Stillwell 22 pre-arb 131-0.7 0.1 -0.3
Terry Francona 28 FA-elig 102-0.7 0.2 -0.4

Key additions (new vs 1986)

PlayerfWAR
Frank Williams1.1
Guy Hoffman1.0
Dennis Rasmussen0.9
Dave Collins0.8
Jeff Treadway0.5
Jerry Reuss0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 1986)

Player1986 fWAR
John Denny2.9
Chris Welsh1.7
Eddie Milner1.5
Mike Smith0.1
Tony Perez-0.1
Joe Price-0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

1987 payroll
$9.3M

What the front office was committed to as of 1987, 1987–1993. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc1987198819891990199119921993
Mario Soto3010.000$1.2M$1.2MFREE AGENT
Dave Parker3614.000$1.1MFREE AGENT
Buddy Bell3515.000$870k$616kFREE AGENT
Bo Diaz3410.000$825k$850k$900kFREE AGENT
Ron Oester319.000$750k$290k$650k$650kFREE AGENT
Bill Gullickson288.000$694kFREE AGENT
Ted Power326.000$500kFREE AGENT$500k
Dave Concepcion3917.000$320k$370kFREE AGENT
Jerry Reuss3818.000$308kFREE AGENT
Terry Francona286.000$225kFREE AGENT
Dave Collins3412.000$100k$175k$225kFREE AGENT
Guy Hoffman308.000$75kFREE AGENT
Tom Hume3410.000$28kFREE AGENT
Sal Butera347.000$6kFREE AGENT
Max Venable308.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (8)

PlayerAgeSvc1987198819891990199119921993
Eric Davis253.000$330kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Esasky274.000$305kARB 3FREE AGENT
Frank Williams293.000$300kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Franco263.000$300kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tom Browning273.000$288kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ron Robinson253.000$185kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dennis Rasmussen284.000$37kARB 3FREE AGENT
Bill Scherrer295.000—FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (14)

PlayerAgeSvc1987198819891990199119921993
Rob Murphy272.000$95kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kal Daniels231.000$86kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tracy Jones261.000$80kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Kurt Stillwell221.000$80kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Barry Larkin231.000$78kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul O'Neill242.000$65kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Terry McGriff230.000$62kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pat Perry282.000$17kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Leo Garcia24–—
Bill Landrum291.000—Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lloyd McClendon280.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jeff Montgomery250.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pat Pacillo23–—
Jeff Treadway240.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Reds 1987; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.