Rosternomics

Cubs CHC

200388–74 (0.543)Made Playoffs
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GM: Jim Hendry

Overview

Ranks vs the 30 teams in 2003, or a custom range (defaults to every team-season since 1985, when our data starts).

to

Front Office

PoorAverageGreat
Value
Payroll $M
$83M
Win %
0.543
TAB
+4.4
WAB
+3.7
Roster composition
Roster fWAR
40.8
Dead money %
30%
Depth Players
9.0
Dead WAR
-4.1

Offense

PoorAverageGreat

Pitching & Defense

PoorAverageGreat

Roster

2003 depth chart — stacked by playing time

C

RDamian Miller114
LPaul Bako69
RJosh Paul3

1B

REric Karros97
LHee-Seop Choi69
LRandall Simon33
LLenny Harris2
RRamon Martinez2

2B

RMark Grudzielanek121
BMark Bellhorn51
RRamon Martinez42
LTony Womack5
BAugie Ojeda5
BBobby Hill5
RJosé Hernández1

3B

RAramis Ramirez63
RRamon Martinez37
LLenny Harris35
BAugie Ojeda1

SS

RAlex Gonzalez150
RRamon Martinez32
RJosé Hernández22
LTony Womack16
BAugie Ojeda7

LF

RMoises Alou142
LTroy O'Leary28
LTom Goodwin17
RDavid Kelton2
RDoug Glanville1

CF

LCorey Patterson82
LKenny Lofton56
LTom Goodwin27
RDoug Glanville26
RTrenidad Hubbard4
RJosé Hernández1

RF

RSammy Sosa137
LTroy O'Leary24
LTom Goodwin15
RDoug Glanville1
RTrenidad Hubbard1

DH

RMoises Alou9

Starters

RMark Prior8.4 WAR
RCarlos Zambrano5.4 WAR
RKerry Wood4.3 WAR
RMatt Clement2.8 WAR
RJuan Cruz0.9 WAR
LShawn Estes0.8 WAR
RSergio Mitre0.1 WAR

Bullpen

RJoe Borowski33 sv
RKyle Farnsworth19 h
LMike Remlinger17 h
LMark Guthrie10 h
RAntonio Alfonseca9 h
RDave Veres4 h
RTodd Wellemeyer1 h
LPhil Norton0 h

Each position shows its top 3 by games (top = starter) — click "+more" for the rest. The letter is bats/throws; marks a player traded mid-season. Starters are ranked by WAR, bullpen by holds; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

Key additions (new vs 2002)

PlayerfWAR
Mark Grudzielanek2.3
Kenny Lofton2.1
Damian Miller0.9
Shawn Estes0.8
Aramis Ramirez0.7
Paul Bako0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2002)

Player2002 fWAR
Jon Lieber3.1
Fred McGriff2.4
Bill Mueller2.3
Jason Bere0.7
Darren Lewis0.6
Robert Machado0.5

Contract Value

WAR translated into tier-adjusted market value, then compared with what the player was paid by Cubs. Guaranteed contracts from the 2015-present contract-data period use the known contract period through 2003; everyone else is shown as a 2003 season snapshot.

PlayerPeriodfWARTier Market $MPaid $MSurplus $M$ / WARTierContract
Mark Prior 2003 +8.4 +168.9 1.4 +167.4 $0.2M 2.50×
Carlos Zambrano 2003 +5.4 +108.1 0.3 +107.8 $0.1M 2.50×
Kerry Wood 2003 +4.3 +75.7 6.2 +69.5 $1.4M 2.19×
Matt Clement 2003 +2.8 +44.4 4.0 +40.4 $1.4M 1.96×
Moises Alou 2003 +3.4 +44.0 9.5 +34.5 $2.8M 1.60×
Joe Borowski 2003 +1.8 +27.8 0.4 +27.4 $0.2M 1.95×
Corey Patterson 2003 +2.5 +23.9 0.4 +23.5 $0.1M 1.22×
Sammy Sosa 2003 +2.8 +36.0 16.0 +20.0 $5.7M 1.60×
Kenny Lofton 2003 +2.1 +20.0 0.4 +19.6 $0.2M 1.22×
Mark Grudzielanek 2003 +2.3 +15.0 5.5 +9.5 $2.4M 0.82×
Alex Gonzalez 2003 +1.6 +11.3 5.8 +5.6 $3.6M 0.89×
Kyle Farnsworth 2003 +1.2 +6.2 0.6 +5.6 $0.5M 0.67×
Juan Cruz 2003 +0.9 +4.6 0.3 +4.3 $0.4M 0.67×
Hee-Seop Choi 2003 +1.0 +4.4 0.3 +4.1 $0.3M 0.56×
Shawn Estes 2003 +0.8 +6.6 3.0 +3.6 $3.7M 1.02×
Aramis Ramirez 2003 +0.7 +3.4 1.2 +2.2 $1.6M 0.58×
Randall Simon 2003 +0.4 +1.7 0.4 +1.3 $1.0M 0.56×
Tom Goodwin 2003 +0.3 +2.0 0.6 +1.3 $2.1M 0.83×
Damian Miller 2003 +0.9 +3.7 2.7 +1.0 $3.1M 0.52×
Paul Bako 2003 +0.4 +1.7 0.8 +0.9 $1.9M 0.52×
Dave Veres 2003 +0.4 +2.1 2.0 +0.1 $5.1M 0.67×
Josh Paul 2003 -0.2 -0.6 0.1 -0.7 0.52×
Mark Bellhorn 2003 -0.2 -0.7 0.2 -0.9 0.56×
Tony Womack 2003 +0.0 +0.2 1.2 -1.0 $30.5M 0.61×
José Hernández 2003 -0.3 -1.7 0.2 -1.8 0.61×
Mike Remlinger 2003 +0.1 +0.7 2.6 -1.9 $20.0M 0.67×
Doug Glanville 2003 -0.2 -1.6 0.3 -2.0 0.83×
Antonio Alfonseca 2003 +0.3 +1.4 4.0 -2.6 $15.4M 0.67×
Ramon Martinez 2003 -0.4 -1.9 0.8 -2.7 0.56×
Troy O'Leary 2003 -0.3 -2.0 0.8 -2.7 0.83×
Mark Guthrie 2003 -0.4 -2.4 1.6 -4.0 0.67×
Lenny Harris 2003 -0.9 -4.2 0.7 -4.9 0.58×
Eric Karros 2003 -0.5 -2.1 8.4 -10.5 0.56×
Alan Benes 2003 +0.1 +0.6 0.67×
Augie Ojeda 2003 -0.2 -0.8 0.61×
Bobby Hill 2003 -0.1 -0.3 0.56×
David Kelton 2003 -0.2 -1.0 0.83×
Felix Sanchez 2003 -0.1 -0.7 0.67×
Phil Norton 2003 -0.0 -0.2 0.67×
Sergio Mitre 2003 +0.1 +0.5 1.02×
Todd Wellemeyer 2003 -0.1 -0.5 0.67×
Trenidad Hubbard 2003 +0.0 +0.0 0.83×
Total+40.9+594.282.7+513.9

Trades

Every graded 2003 deal involving the Cubs — best expected value first. Surplus is realized value in $M; 12 total.

2003 · TEX / CHC
TEX · John Hart +$3.2M
Jason Fransz
CHC · Jim Hendry −$3.2M
Doug Glanville
TEX came out ahead by $3.2M
2003 · CHC / TEX
CHC · Jim Hendry +$0.0M
Alan Benes
TEX · John Hart +$0.0M
Steve O'Sullivan
Even trade
2003 · CHC / PIT
CHC · Jim Hendry +$59.2M
Aramis Ramírez, Kenny Lofton
PIT · Dave Littlefield −$59.2M
José Hernández, Matt Bruback, Bobby Hill
CHC came out ahead by $59.2M
2003 · CIN / CHC
CIN · Jim Bowden +$0.8M
Phil Norton
CHC · Jim Hendry −$0.8M
John Koronka
CIN came out ahead by $0.8M
2003 · ARI / CHC
ARI · Joe Garagiola +$0.0M
Derrin Ebert
CHC · Jim Hendry +$0.0M
Chris Donnels
Even trade
2003 · WSN / CHC
WSN · Omar Minaya +$4.8M
Wilton Chavez
CHC · Jim Hendry −$4.8M
José Macias
WSN came out ahead by $4.8M
2003 · PIT / CHC
PIT · Dave Littlefield +$1.6M
Ray Sadler
CHC · Jim Hendry −$1.6M
Randall Simon
PIT came out ahead by $1.6M
2003 · TEX / CHC
TEX · John Hart +$0.0M
Alan Benes
CHC · Jim Hendry +$0.0M
cash / PTBNL
Even trade
2003 · CHC / OAK
CHC · Jim Hendry +$15.2M
Michael Barrett
OAK · Billy Beane −$15.2M
Damian Miller
CHC came out ahead by $15.2M
2003 · CHC / MIA
CHC · Jim Hendry +$27.2M
Derrek Lee
MIA · Larry Beinfest −$27.2M
Hee-Seop Choi, Mike Nannini
CHC came out ahead by $27.2M
2003 · COL / CHC
COL · Daniel O'Dowd +$17.6M
Emmanuel Ramirez
CHC · Jim Hendry −$17.6M
Tony Womack
COL came out ahead by $17.6M
2003 · COL / CHC
COL · Daniel O'Dowd +$1.6M
Mark Bellhorn
CHC · Jim Hendry −$1.6M
José Hernández
COL came out ahead by $1.6M

Current & Historical Payroll

2003 payroll
$82.7M

What the front office was committed to as of 2003, 2003–2009. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (23)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Sammy Sosa3414.000$16.0M$16.0MFREE AGENT
Moises Alou3613.000$9.5M$9.5MFREE AGENT
Eric Karros3512.000$8.4MFREE AGENT
Alex Gonzalez309.000$5.8M$2.6MFREE AGENT
Mark Grudzielanek338.000$5.5M$2.5MFREE AGENT
Antonio Alfonseca316.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Shawn Estes308.000$3.0MFREE AGENT
Damian Miller336.000$2.7MFREE AGENT
Mike Remlinger3712.000$2.6M$4.0M$3.4MFREE AGENT
Dave Veres369.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Guthrie3714.000$1.6MFREE AGENT
Tony Womack3310.000$1.2MFREE AGENT$1.4M
Troy O'Leary3310.000$750kFREE AGENT
Lenny Harris3815.000$682kFREE AGENT
Tom Goodwin3412.000$635k$650kFREE AGENT
Joe Borowski328.000$410k$2.0M$1.7MFREE AGENT
Kenny Lofton3612.000$410kFREE AGENT
Randall Simon286.000$393kFREE AGENT
Doug Glanville327.000$350kFREE AGENT
Mark Bellhorn286.000$240kFREE AGENT
José Hernández3312.000$153kFREE AGENT
Alan Benes318.000FREE AGENT
Trenidad Hubbard399.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Kerry Wood265.000$6.2MFREE AGENT
Matt Clement285.000$4.0MFREE AGENT
Aramis Ramirez255.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Ramon Martinez305.000$800kFREE AGENT
Paul Bako315.000$750kFREE AGENT
Kyle Farnsworth274.000$600kARB 3FREE AGENT
Corey Patterson233.000$365kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Paul284.000$61kARB 3FREE AGENT
Phil Norton273.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Augie Ojeda283.000ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (9)

PlayerAgeSvc2003200420052006200720082009
Mark Prior221.000$1.4MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Juan Cruz242.000$340kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Carlos Zambrano222.000$340kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hee-Seop Choi241.000$305kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Kelton23
Bobby Hill251.000Pre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Felix Sanchez21
Todd Wellemeyer240.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sergio Mitre220.000Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

How each 2003 acquisition stacked onto Cubs's playoff-odds curve. The side table is ranked by PPA.