CHC⇄COL

CHCCHC Jim Hendry net −$17.6M net +0.3

received −$12.0M−$12.8M ± $9M expected surplus · −$17.6M realized received 0.6 ± 1 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Tony Womack2B/SS·33y·L/R

−$11.8M−$12.5M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$17.6M 0.6± 1 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.50/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.86 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net +$17.6M net -0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Emmanuel RamirezP·8y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.