TEX⇄CHC

TEXTEX John Hart net +$3.2M net +0.2

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2003 odds 5% → 5% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jason FranszLF·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#243 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Jim Hendry net −$3.2M net -0.2

received +$7.2M+$6.4M ± $15M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.5 ± 2 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2003 odds 48% → 47% (-1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Doug GlanvilleOF·32y·R/R

+$7.5M+$6.2M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.5± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.26/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.5/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

1.08/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.