CHC⇄TEX

CHCCHC Jim Hendry net +$0.0M net +0.1

received +$4.8M+$4.0M ± $15M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2003 odds 46% → 47% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alan BenesP·31y·R/R

+$5.0M+$4.2M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.40/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.79/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX John Hart net +$0.0M net -0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2003 odds 6% → 5% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Steve O'Sullivan

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.