WSN⇄CHC

WSNWSN Omar Minaya net +$4.8M net +0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 2004 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Wilton Chavez

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Jim Hendry net −$4.8M net -0.3

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $17M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 2004 odds 80% → 81% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

José Macias3B/OF·32y·B/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

-0.06/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.