RRosternomics
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Red Sox BOS

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GM: Ben Cherington

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.48× league · TAB -12.9
-12.9TAB — talent above budget28th/30
-18.0WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)29th/30
6.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars18th/30
-7.8dead WAR — sub-replacement drag28th/30
42%dead money %23rd/30
0.426win %24th/30
26.2roster fWAR22nd/30
-80surplus $M (value vs cost)29th/30
$147Mpayroll $M4th/30

Roster

CFJacoby Ellsbury 73GMarlon Byrd 46GScott Podsednik 23G
LFDaniel Nava 76GScott Podsednik 31GCarl Crawford 30G
RFCody Ross 96GRyan Sweeney 49GAdrián González 18G
SSMike Aviles 128GJose Iglesias 24GPedro Ciriaco 12G
2BDustin Pedroia 139GPedro Ciriaco 16GIván De Jesús Jr. 12G
3BWill Middlebrooks 72GDanny Valencia 44GPedro Ciriaco 35G
1BJames Loney 133GMauro Gomez 16GDavid Ortiz 7G
STARTERSJon Lester 2.3WARFélix Doubront 1.2WARClay Buchholz 0.7WARFranklin Morales 0.5WARAaron Cook -0.4WAR
CJarrod Saltalamacchia 104GRyan Lavarnway 28GGuillermo Quiroz 1G
DHDavid Ortiz 81GRyan Lavarnway 17GCody Ross 14G
BULLPEN★ Alfredo Aceves 25svVicente Padilla 23hAndrew Miller 13hCraig Breslow 9hScott Atchison 5hJunichi Tazawa 5hMark Melancon 2hClayton Mortensen 1h
CJarrod Saltalamacchia 104 · Ryan Lavarnway 28 · Guillermo Quiroz 1
1BJames Loney 133 · Mauro Gomez 16 · David Ortiz 7
2BDustin Pedroia 139 · Pedro Ciriaco 16 · Iván De Jesús Jr. 12
3BWill Middlebrooks 72 · Danny Valencia 44 · Pedro Ciriaco 35
SSMike Aviles 128 · Jose Iglesias 24 · Pedro Ciriaco 12
LFDaniel Nava 76 · Scott Podsednik 31 · Carl Crawford 30
CFJacoby Ellsbury 73 · Marlon Byrd 46 · Scott Podsednik 23
RFCody Ross 96 · Ryan Sweeney 49 · Adrián González 18
DHDavid Ortiz 81 · Ryan Lavarnway 17 · Cody Ross 14
SPJon Lester 2.3 · Félix Doubront 1.2 · Clay Buchholz 0.7 · Franklin Morales 0.5 · Aaron Cook -0.4
BP★ Alfredo Aceves 25 · Vicente Padilla 23 · Andrew Miller 13 · Craig Breslow 9 · Scott Atchison 5 · Junichi Tazawa 5 · Mark Melancon 2 · Clayton Mortensen 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2012 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Dustin Pedroia 28 FA-elig 1414.3 8.0 +3.1
David Ortiz 36 FA-elig 903.1 14.6 -6.5
Cody Ross 31 FA-elig 1302.7 3.0 +3.9
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 27 arb 1212.6 2.5 +4.2
Adrián González↔ LAD 30 FA-elig 1232.4 16.9 -10.8
Jon Lester 28 FA-elig 332.3 7.6 -1.6
Will Middlebrooks 23 – 752.0 0.5 +4.6
Mike Aviles 31 arb 1361.5 1.2 +2.7
Josh Beckett↔ LAD 32 FA-elig 211.4 12.8 -9.2
Daniel Nava 29 pre-arb 881.2 0.4 +2.8
Félix Doubront 24 pre-arb 291.2 0.5 +2.5
Junichi Tazawa 26 arb 371.1 0.9 +2.0
Kelly Shoppach↔ NYM 32 FA-elig 481.1 0.7 +2.1
Pedro Ciriaco 26 pre-arb 760.9 0.5 +1.9
Jacoby Ellsbury 28 arb 740.8 8.1 -5.9
Scott Atchison 36 FA-elig 420.8 0.5 +1.5
Clay Buchholz 27 arb 290.7 3.5 -1.6
Ryan Sweeney 27 FA-elig 630.7 1.8 +0.0
Andrew Miller 27 FA-elig 530.5 1.0 +0.4
Franklin Morales 26 arb 370.5 0.8 +0.4
Craig Breslow↔ ARI 31 FA-elig 230.4 0.7 +0.4
Rich Hill 32 FA-elig 250.3 0.7 +0.1
Carl Crawford 30 FA-elig 310.3 20.4 -19.5
Scott Podsednik 36 FA-elig 630.3 0.8 +0.0
Vicente Padilla 34 FA-elig 560.2 1.5 -0.9
Kevin Youkilis↔ CHW 33 FA-elig 420.2 4.2 -3.7
Justin Germano↔ CHC 29 – 10.1 – –
Nick Punto↔ LAD 34 FA-elig 650.1 1.1 -0.8
Pedro Beato↔ NYM 25 pre-arb 40.1 0.2 +0.0
Justin Thomas↔ NYY 28 arb 70.0 0.3 -0.2
Alfredo Aceves 29 arb 690.0 1.2 -1.2
Andrew Bailey 28 arb 19-0.0 3.9 -4.0
Michael Bowden↔ CHC 25 arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Guillermo Quiroz 30 – 2-0.0 – –
Darnell McDonald↔ NYY 33 FA-elig 38-0.1 0.5 -0.6
Jose Iglesias 22 pre-arb 25-0.1 2.1 -2.3
Che-Hsuan Lin 23 – 9-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Jason Repko 31 arb 5-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Nate Spears 27 – 4-0.1 – –
Brent Lillibridge↔ CHW 28 arb 10-0.1 0.0 -0.4
Lars Anderson 24 pre-arb 6-0.2 0.5 -0.9
Marlon Byrd↔ CHC 34 FA-elig 35-0.2 4.7 -5.2
Mauro Gomez 27 pre-arb 37-0.2 0.5 -0.9
Mark Melancon 27 arb 41-0.2 0.5 -1.2
Iván De Jesús Jr.↔ LAD 25 pre-arb 8-0.3 0.1 -0.8
Chris Carpenter 26 pre-arb 8-0.3 0.5 -1.2
Clayton Mortensen 27 arb 26-0.3 0.5 -1.2
James Loney↔ LAD 28 FA-elig 30-0.3 1.3 -2.1
Danny Valencia↔ MIN 27 pre-arb 10-0.4 0.1 -1.1
Zach Stewart↔ CHW 25 pre-arb 2-0.4 0.0 -1.0
Daisuke Matsuzaka 31 arb 11-0.4 10.0 -11.0
Aaron Cook 33 FA-elig 18-0.4 1.3 -2.3
Matt Albers↔ ARI 29 FA-elig 40-0.4 0.7 -1.8
Daniel Bard 27 arb 17-0.7 1.6 -3.5
Ryan Kalish 24 pre-arb 36-1.0 0.5 -3.1
Ryan Lavarnway 24 pre-arb 46-1.5 0.5 -4.3

Key additions (new vs 2011)

PlayerfWAR
Cody Ross2.7
Will Middlebrooks2.0
Daniel Nava1.2
Kelly Shoppach1.1
Pedro Ciriaco0.9
Ryan Sweeney0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2011)

Player2011 fWAR
Jonathan Papelbon3.0
Marco Scutaro2.7
Josh Reddick2.0
Erik Bedard0.7
Drew Sutton0.4
Dan Wheeler0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2012 payroll
$147.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 2012, 2012–2018. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Carl Crawford309.072$20.4MFREE AGENT
Adrián González306.108$16.9MFREE AGENT
David Ortiz3613.048$14.6M$14.0M$15.0M$16.0M$16.0MFREE AGENT
Josh Beckett3210.030$12.8MFREE AGENT
Dustin Pedroia2814.041$8.0M$10.0M$12.5M$12.5M$13.0M$15.0M$16.0M
Marlon Byrd348.045$4.7MFREE AGENT
Kevin Youkilis337.093$4.2MFREE AGENT
Cody Ross316.058$3.0MFREE AGENT
Vicente Padilla3413.000$1.5MFREE AGENT
Aaron Cook339.020$1.3MFREE AGENT
Nick Punto349.051$1.1MFREE AGENT
Scott Podsednik368.035$750kFREE AGENT
Kelly Shoppach326.021$717kFREE AGENT
Chris Carpenter2614.080$482kFREE AGENT
Justin Germano298.000—FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (19)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Daisuke Matsuzaka315.000$10.0MFREE AGENT
Jacoby Ellsbury284.037$8.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jon Lester285.075$7.6MFREE AGENT
Andrew Bailey283.000$3.9MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Clay Buchholz273.059$3.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarrod Saltalamacchia274.043$2.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Sweeney274.053$1.8MARB 3FREE AGENT
James Loney285.012$1.3MFREE AGENT
Mike Aviles313.091$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alfredo Aceves293.001$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Miller273.062$1.0MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Franklin Morales263.007$850kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rich Hill324.037$725kARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Albers294.141$683kARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Breslow314.088$655kARB 3FREE AGENT
Clayton Mortensen273.000$486kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Justin Thomas284.000$328kARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Repko314.168$185kARB 3FREE AGENT
Brent Lillibridge284.000$49kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (22)

PlayerAgeSvc2012201320142015201620172018
Jose Iglesias221.000$2.1MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Bard272.148$1.6MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junichi Tazawa261.163$920kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mark Melancon271.139$521kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Scott Atchison362.168$510kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Félix Doubront240.120$484kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Kalish242.117$483kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Lavarnway240.042$482kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lars Anderson240.053$482kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mauro Gomez270.086$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Ciriaco260.118$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Che-Hsuan Lin23–$480k
Will Middlebrooks230.000$480kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Darnell McDonald332.143$458kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Nava290.091$383kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Beato251.000$177kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Iván De Jesús Jr.251.000$124kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Danny Valencia271.123$117kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zach Stewart250.067$48kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Michael Bowden252.030$30kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Guillermo Quiroz302.013—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nate Spears27–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Red Sox 2012; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.