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June 24, 2012

CHW⇄BOS

CHW won this trade +$12.8M surplus CHW won this trade +2.1 WAR
CHWCHW Kenny Williams net +$12.8M net +2.1
received +$29.6M+$29.6M ± $17M expected surplus · +$8.8M realized received 3.5 ± 2 expected · 1.6 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 2012 odds 18% → 26% (+8.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Kevin Youkilis1B/3B·33y·R/R
+$29.4M+$29.4M± $17M exp surplusrealized +$8.8M 3.5± 2 exp WARrealized 1.6
Prior
league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 5.2/yr over 2.2 seasons
Talent
3.46/yr blended
Horizon
1.0 control yr
BOSBOS Ben Cherington net −$12.8M net -2.1
received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $39M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 3.2 ± 5 expected · -0.5 realized WAR
Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2012 odds 5% → 3% (-1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗
receives — most valuable first
Brent LillibridgeOF·28y·R/R
+$7.6M+$7.6M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.7± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1
Prior
league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 0.6/yr over 1.1 season
Talent
0.40/yr blended
Horizon
5.0 control yrs × 0.83 age decline
Zach StewartP·25y·R/R
+$3.6M+$3.6M± $32M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.5± 4 exp WARrealized -0.4
Prior
#84 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr
Evidence
recent form 0.5/yr over 0.5 season
Talent
0.28/yr blended
Horizon
5.5 control yrs

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.

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Decision-maker records extend to 1933; resource-controlled WAR and payroll metrics cover 1985–2026. Data sources include FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, the Chadwick Bureau register, the Lahman Database, prospect rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs, and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0).
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