BOS⇄NYM

BOSBOS Ben Cherington net +$0.0M net +0.2

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $28M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.5 ± 4 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2012 odds 3% → 3% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Pedro BeatoP·25y·R/R

−$1.1M−$1.1M± $28M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.5± 4 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#32 overall draft pick → 0.30/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.10/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Sandy Alderson net +$0.0M net -0.2

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $8M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.8 ± 1 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2012 odds 7% → 7% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kelly ShoppachC·32y·R/R

+$2.8M+$2.8M± $8M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.85/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.