LAD⇄BOS

LADLAD Ned Colletti net −$275.2M net +18.2

received +$50.4M+$15.2M ± $26M expected surplus · −$293.6M realized received 10.5 ± 3 expected · 17.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2012 odds 11% → 17% (+6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carl CrawfordOF·30y·L/L

+$34.6M−$0.4M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$96.8M 2.7± 1 exp WARrealized 4.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.9/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

2.72/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Josh BeckettP·32y·R/R

+$11.4M+$11.4M± $11M exp surplusrealized −$71.2M 2.6± 1 exp WARrealized 1.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.46/yr

Evidence

recent form 3.5/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

2.57/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Nick Punto2B/3B/SS·34y·B/R

+$8.6M+$8.6M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 1.7± 1 exp WARrealized 2.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.8/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.70/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Adrián González1B·30y·L/L

−$4.0M−$4.0M± $17M exp surplusrealized −$129.6M 3.5± 2 exp WARrealized 10.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.39/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.9/yr over 2.7 seasons

Talent

3.50/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Ben Cherington net +$275.2M net -18.2

received +$38.4M+$38.4M ± $57M expected surplus · −$18.4M realized received 9.6 ± 7 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2012 odds 5% → 3% (-1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jerry SandsOF·24y·R/R

+$14.8M+$14.8M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.9± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#757 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.58/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Allen WebsterP·22y·R/R

+$14.0M+$14.0M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 2.3± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

Composite #95.0 prospect (Baseball America #95 (2012)) → 0.42/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.42/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Rubby De La RosaP·23y·R/R

+$12.2M+$12.2M± $41M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 3.4± 5 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

Composite #90.0 pedigree (Baseball America #90 (2011)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.61/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

James Loney1B·28y·L/L

+$2.1M+$2.1M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$12.8M 1.0± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.25/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.99/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Iván De Jesús2B·25y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#51 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -4.2/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

-0.17/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.