MIN⇄BOS

MINMIN Terry Ryan net +$3.2M net +0.4

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2012 odds 0% → 1% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeremias Pineda

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Ben Cherington net −$3.2M net -0.4

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $24M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.9 ± 3 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 2012 odds 3% → 3% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Danny Valencia3B·27y·R/R

+$5.1M+$5.1M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.9± 3 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.41/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.