BOS⇄CLE

BOSBOS Ben Cherington net +$14.4M net +2.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $22M expected surplus · +$14.4M realized received 0.9 ± 3 expected · 2.3 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Steven WrightP·27y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$14.4M 0.9± 3 exp WARrealized 2.3

Prior

#56 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.79 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net −$14.4M net -2.3

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $27M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Lars Anderson1B·24y·L/L

−$2.9M−$2.9M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

Composite #87.0 pedigree (Baseball America #87 (2010)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.5/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.06/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.