RRosternomics
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Red Sox BOS

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GM: Ben Cherington

Overview

CONTEND ↗ rising
expensive & winning · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.6× league · TAB +11.4
+11.4TAB — talent above budget4th/30
+8.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)7th/30
13.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars1st/30
-3.9dead WAR — sub-replacement drag7th/30
23%dead money %5th/30
0.599win %1st/30
51.5roster fWAR2nd/30
-28surplus $M (value vs cost)23rd/30
$166Mpayroll $M4th/30

2013: World Series champions · 97–65. Ranks are vs the 30 teams that season.

Roster

CFJacoby Ellsbury 134GJackie Bradley Jr. 19GShane Victorino 15G
LFJonny Gomes 98GDaniel Nava 63GMike Carp 41G
RFShane Victorino 110GDaniel Nava 69GJonny Gomes 4G
SSStephen Drew 124GXander Bogaerts 8G
2BDustin Pedroia 160GJohn McDonald 11GBrock Holt 5G
3BWill Middlebrooks 92GBrock Holt 20GBrandon Snyder 17G
1BMike Napoli 131GMike Carp 29GDaniel Nava 19G
STARTERSJon Lester 3.2WARClay Buchholz 2.7WARJohn Lackey 2.4WARFélix Doubront 2.2WARJake Peavy 1.0WAR
CJarrod Saltalamacchia 119GDavid Ross 36GRyan Lavarnway 22G
DHDavid Ortiz 129GJonny Gomes 10GMike Napoli 8G
BULLPEN★ Koji Uehara 21svJunichi Tazawa 25hMatt Thornton 19hCraig Breslow 13hAndrew Bailey 8hAndrew Miller 6hAlex Wilson 1hClayton Mortensen 0h
CJarrod Saltalamacchia 119 · David Ross 36 · Ryan Lavarnway 22
1BMike Napoli 131 · Mike Carp 29 · Daniel Nava 19
2BDustin Pedroia 160 · John McDonald 11 · Brock Holt 5
3BWill Middlebrooks 92 · Brock Holt 20 · Brandon Snyder 17
SSStephen Drew 124 · Xander Bogaerts 8
LFJonny Gomes 98 · Daniel Nava 63 · Mike Carp 41
CFJacoby Ellsbury 134 · Jackie Bradley Jr. 19 · Shane Victorino 15
RFShane Victorino 110 · Daniel Nava 69 · Jonny Gomes 4
DHDavid Ortiz 129 · Jonny Gomes 10 · Mike Napoli 8
SPJon Lester 3.2 · Clay Buchholz 2.7 · John Lackey 2.4 · Félix Doubront 2.2 · Jake Peavy 1.0
BP★ Koji Uehara 21 · Junichi Tazawa 25 · Matt Thornton 19 · Craig Breslow 13 · Andrew Bailey 8 · Andrew Miller 6 · Alex Wilson 1 · Clayton Mortensen 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2013 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Dustin Pedroia 29 FA-elig 1604.8 10.0 +3.0
Shane Victorino 32 FA-elig 1224.7 13.0 -0.5
Jacoby Ellsbury 29 FA-elig 1344.6 9.0 +3.3
Stephen Drew 30 FA-elig 1243.6 9.5 +0.2
David Ortiz 37 FA-elig 1373.4 14.0 -4.9
Mike Napoli 31 FA-elig 1393.4 13.0 -4.0
Jon Lester 29 FA-elig 333.2 11.6 -3.0
Koji Uehara 38 arb 733.1 4.2 +4.0
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 28 FA-elig 1212.8 4.5 +2.9
Clay Buchholz 28 FA-elig 162.7 5.5 +1.9
Daniel Nava 30 arb 1342.7 0.5 +6.7
John Lackey 34 FA-elig 292.4 15.2 -8.8
Félix Doubront 25 arb 292.2 0.5 +5.4
Jose Iglesias↔ DET 23 pre-arb 631.8 1.2 +3.7
Jonny Gomes 32 FA-elig 1161.5 5.0 -0.9
David Ross 36 FA-elig 361.4 3.1 +0.6
Mike Carp 27 arb 861.4 0.5 +3.2
Jake Peavy↔ CHW 32 FA-elig 101.0 6.3 -3.6
Junichi Tazawa 27 arb 710.8 0.8 +1.5
Brandon Workman 24 – 200.5 0.2 +1.2
Will Middlebrooks 24 pre-arb 940.5 0.5 +0.8
Craig Breslow 32 FA-elig 610.5 2.3 -1.1
Ryan Dempster 36 FA-elig 320.5 13.2 -12.0
Quintin Berry 28 pre-arb 130.4 0.1 +1.0
Andrew Miller 28 FA-elig 370.3 1.5 -0.6
Drake Britton 24 pre-arb 190.3 0.2 +0.6
Alex Wilson 26 – 260.3 0.5 +0.2
Ryan Lavarnway 25 pre-arb 250.2 0.3 +0.3
Matt Thornton↔ CHW 36 FA-elig 200.2 1.8 -1.3
Xander Bogaerts 20 – 180.1 0.1 +0.2
Steven Wright 28 – 40.0 0.1 -0.0
Brayan Villarreal↔ DET 26 pre-arb 10.0 0.1 -0.1
Pedro Beato 26 pre-arb 10-0.0 0.4 -0.4
John McDonald↔ CLE 38 FA-elig 6-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Daniel Bard 28 – 2-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Franklin Morales 27 FA-elig 20-0.1 1.5 -1.7
Jonathan Diaz 28 pre-arb 5-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Jose De La Torre 27 – 7-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Andrew Bailey 29 arb 30-0.2 4.1 -4.5
Rubby De La Rosa 24 – 11-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Jackie Bradley Jr. 23 pre-arb 37-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Brandon Snyder 26 pre-arb 27-0.2 0.3 -0.9
Clayton Mortensen 28 arb 24-0.2 0.5 -1.1
Brock Holt 25 pre-arb 26-0.3 0.1 -0.9
Allen Webster 23 – 8-0.5 0.1 -1.4
Pedro Ciriaco↔ KCR 27 arb 28-0.5 0.3 -1.6
Alfredo Aceves 30 arb 11-0.6 2.6 -4.2
Joel Hanrahan 31 FA-elig 9-0.7 7.0 -8.9

Key additions (new vs 2012)

PlayerfWAR
Shane Victorino4.7
Stephen Drew3.6
Mike Napoli3.4
Koji Uehara3.1
John Lackey2.4
Jonny Gomes1.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2012)

Player2012 fWAR
Cody Ross2.7
Mike Aviles1.5
Kelly Shoppach1.1
Scott Atchison0.8
Ryan Sweeney0.7
Rich Hill0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2013 payroll
$166.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 2013, 2013–2019. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (13)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
John Lackey3410.095$15.2M$10.3MFREE AGENT
David Ortiz3714.048$14.0M$15.0M$16.0M$16.0MFREE AGENT
Ryan Dempster3614.063$13.2MFREE AGENT
Shane Victorino327.092$13.0M$13.0M$7.0MFREE AGENT
Mike Napoli316.151$13.0M$16.0M$11.8MFREE AGENT
Jon Lester296.075$11.6M$8.5MFREE AGENT
Dustin Pedroia2914.041$10.0M$12.5M$12.5M$13.0M$15.0M$16.0M$15.0M
Stephen Drew306.079$9.5M$5.5MFREE AGENT
Jake Peavy3210.101$6.3M$9.1MFREE AGENT
Jonny Gomes327.097$5.0M$3.5MFREE AGENT
David Ross3613.001$3.1M$3.1MFREE AGENT
Matt Thornton368.129$1.8MFREE AGENT
John McDonald3811.118$69kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Jacoby Ellsbury295.037$9.0MFREE AGENT
Joel Hanrahan315.065$7.0MFREE AGENT
Clay Buchholz284.059$5.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Jarrod Saltalamacchia285.043$4.5MFREE AGENT
Koji Uehara384.000$4.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Bailey294.000$4.1MARB 3FREE AGENT
Alfredo Aceves304.001$2.6MARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Breslow325.088$2.3MFREE AGENT
Franklin Morales274.007$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Miller284.062$1.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Clayton Mortensen284.000$504kARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Bard283.074$51kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (23)

PlayerAgeSvc2013201420152016201720182019
Jose Iglesias232.000$1.2MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Junichi Tazawa272.086$815kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Félix Doubront251.120$518kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Carp272.010$508kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Nava301.066$505kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Middlebrooks240.155$498kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jackie Bradley Jr.230.000$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alex Wilson260.000$490kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Beato261.100$366kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Lavarnway250.106$289kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Snyder261.025$260kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Ciriaco271.036$251kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Workman240.000$222kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Drake Britton240.103$209kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rubby De La Rosa242.000$129kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brock Holt250.033$129kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Allen Webster230.000$118kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xander Bogaerts200.000$112kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Steven Wright280.000$86kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Quintin Berry280.134$80kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jose De La Torre27–$78k
Brayan Villarreal261.084$63kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Diaz280.041$19kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Red Sox 2013; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.