RRosternomics
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Orioles BAL

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GM: Dan Duquette

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 1 in this regime · payroll 1.34× league · TAB -17.7
-17.7TAB — talent above budget29th/30
-10.8WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)26th/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars26th/30
-7.2dead WAR — sub-replacement drag26th/30
53%dead money %26th/30
0.463win %20th/30
20.2roster fWAR27th/30
-107surplus $M (value vs cost)29th/30
$175Mpayroll $M5th/30

Roster

CFAdam Jones 147GJoey Rickard 21GCraig Gentry 9G
LFTrey Mancini 88GJoey Rickard 43GCraig Gentry 30G
RFSeth Smith 80GJoey Rickard 53GCraig Gentry 31G
SSTim Beckham 119GJ.J. Hardy 71GRubén Tejada 36G
2BJonathan Schoop 159GRyan Flaherty 12GJohnny Giavotella 5G
3BManny Machado 156GCaleb Joseph 8GRubén Tejada 6G
1BChris Davis 125GTrey Mancini 45GPedro Álvarez 2G
STARTERSDylan Bundy 2.8WARKevin Gausman 2.5WARWade Miley 0.9WARAlec Asher 0.2WARUbaldo Jiménez 0.1WAR
CWelington Castillo 88GCaleb Joseph 79GChance Sisco 10G
DHMark Trumbo 111GTrey Mancini 18GSeth Smith 7G
BULLPEN★ Brad Brach 18svMychal Givens 21hDarren O'Day 17hDonnie Hart 5hRichard Bleier 3hMiguel Castro 1hZack Britton 0hJimmy Yacabonis 0h
CWelington Castillo 88 · Caleb Joseph 79 · Chance Sisco 10
1BChris Davis 125 · Trey Mancini 45 · Pedro Álvarez 2
2BJonathan Schoop 159 · Ryan Flaherty 12 · Johnny Giavotella 5
3BManny Machado 156 · Caleb Joseph 8 · Rubén Tejada 6
SSTim Beckham 119 · J.J. Hardy 71 · Rubén Tejada 36
LFTrey Mancini 88 · Joey Rickard 43 · Craig Gentry 30
CFAdam Jones 147 · Joey Rickard 21 · Craig Gentry 9
RFSeth Smith 80 · Joey Rickard 53 · Craig Gentry 31
DHMark Trumbo 111 · Trey Mancini 18 · Seth Smith 7
SPDylan Bundy 2.8 · Kevin Gausman 2.5 · Wade Miley 0.9 · Alec Asher 0.2 · Ubaldo Jiménez 0.1
BP★ Brad Brach 18 · Mychal Givens 21 · Darren O'Day 17 · Donnie Hart 5 · Richard Bleier 3 · Miguel Castro 1 · Zack Britton 0 · Jimmy Yacabonis 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2017 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Jonathan Schoop 25 arb 1604.5 3.5 +11.8
Dylan Bundy 24 pre-arb 282.8 1.6 +7.7
Kevin Gausman 26 arb 342.5 3.5 +5.1
Welington Castillo 30 FA-elig 961.9 6.0 +0.5
Trey Mancini 25 pre-arb 1471.8 0.5 +5.7
Manny Machado 24 arb 1561.7 11.5 -5.6
Tim Beckham↔ TBR 27 arb 501.7 0.3 +5.3
Adam Jones 31 FA-elig 1471.4 16.3 -11.5
Mychal Givens 27 pre-arb 691.2 0.5 +3.5
Brad Brach 31 FA-elig 671.2 3.0 +0.9
Caleb Joseph 31 arb 891.1 0.7 +3.1
Seth Smith 34 FA-elig 1110.9 7.0 -4.0
Wade Miley 30 FA-elig 320.9 8.9 -6.0
Darren O'Day 34 FA-elig 640.8 7.0 -4.2
Zack Britton 29 FA-elig 380.6 11.4 -9.3
Gabriel Ynoa 24 pre-arb 90.5 0.2 +1.4
Chance Sisco 22 – 100.3 0.1 +1.1
Francisco Peña 27 pre-arb 50.3 0.1 +1.0
Craig Gentry 33 FA-elig 770.3 0.8 +0.1
Alec Asher 25 pre-arb 240.2 0.2 +0.5
Richard Bleier 30 pre-arb 570.2 0.4 +0.2
Joey Rickard 26 pre-arb 1110.1 0.5 -0.1
Donnie Hart 26 pre-arb 510.1 0.5 -0.1
Ubaldo Jiménez 33 FA-elig 310.1 13.5 -13.1
Mike Wright Jr. 27 – 130.0 – –
Oliver Drake↔ MIL 30 pre-arb 30.0 0.0 +0.0
Tanner Scott 22 – 20.0 0.0 -0.0
Stefan Crichton 25 – 8-0.0 0.1 -0.2
Pedro Álvarez 30 FA-elig 14-0.0 2.0 -2.1
Jayson Aquino 24 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Miguel Castro 22 pre-arb 39-0.1 0.3 -0.6
Tyler Wilson 27 pre-arb 9-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Anthony Santander 22 – 13-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Jimmy Yacabonis 25 – 14-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Jeremy Hellickson↔ PHI 30 FA-elig 10-0.1 5.7 -6.2
David Washington 26 – 3-0.2 0.1 -0.6
Edwin Jackson↔ WSN 33 – 3-0.2 0.3 -1.0
Rubén Tejada 27 arb 41-0.2 1.4 -2.0
Logan Verrett 27 pre-arb 4-0.2 0.0 -0.8
Johnny Giavotella 29 pre-arb 7-0.3 1.1 -2.0
Ryan Flaherty 30 arb 23-0.3 1.8 -2.7
Hyun Soo Kim↔ PHI 29 pre-arb 56-0.3 2.5 -3.4
J.J. Hardy 34 FA-elig 73-0.3 14.0 -15.0
Richard Rodríguez 27 – 5-0.3 0.0 -1.1
Austin Hays 21 – 20-0.4 0.1 -1.3
Chris Davis 31 FA-elig 128-0.4 23.0 -24.3
Paul Janish 34 arb 14-0.5 0.1 -1.7
Vidal Nuño 29 arb 12-0.5 1.1 -2.8
Chris Tillman 29 FA-elig 24-0.9 10.1 -13.2
Mark Trumbo 31 FA-elig 146-1.8 11.5 -17.7

Key additions (new vs 2016)

PlayerfWAR
Welington Castillo1.9
Tim Beckham1.7
Seth Smith0.9
Gabriel Ynoa0.5
Chance Sisco0.3
Craig Gentry0.3

Key subtractions (gone from 2016)

Player2016 fWAR
Matt Wieters1.4
Michael Bourn0.5
Tommy Hunter0.2
Aríel Miranda0.1
Steve Pearce0.1
Vance Worley0.1

Current & Historical Payroll

2017 payroll
$174.9M
2018 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2017, 2017–2023. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2017; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (10)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Chris Davis317.061$23.0MFREE AGENT
Adam Jones319.139$16.3MFREE AGENT
J.J. Hardy3412.164$14.0MFREE AGENT
Ubaldo Jiménez339.087$13.5MFREE AGENT
Mark Trumbo316.027$11.5MFREE AGENT
Darren O'Day348.103$7.0MFREE AGENT
Seth Smith348.119$7.0MFREE AGENT
Jeremy Hellickson306.045$5.7MFREE AGENT
Pedro Álvarez306.085$2.0MFREE AGENT
Edwin Jackson3311.031$334kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Manny Machado244.056$11.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Britton294.158$11.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Tillman295.113$10.1MFREE AGENT
Wade Miley305.044$8.9MFREE AGENT
Welington Castillo305.009$6.0MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Schoop253.027$3.5MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Brach314.063$3.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Flaherty305.000$1.8MFREE AGENT
Rubén Tejada275.089$1.4MFREE AGENT
Vidal Nuño293.015$1.1MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Craig Gentry335.103$850kFREE AGENT
Paul Janish345.048$99kFREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2017201820192020202120222023
Kevin Gausman262.151$3.5MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hyun Soo Kim291.000$2.5MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dylan Bundy241.026$1.6MPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Johnny Giavotella292.055$1.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Caleb Joseph312.145$700kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mychal Givens271.069$546kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Wilson271.037$545kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Rickard261.000$539kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Donnie Hart260.080$538kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trey Mancini250.015$536kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Santander220.000$535kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richard Bleier301.000$424kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Castro220.139$327kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Beckham272.134$323kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alec Asher250.144$231kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Gabriel Ynoa240.038$161kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stefan Crichton250.000$132kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Yacabonis250.000$111kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jayson Aquino240.034$99kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chance Sisco220.000$91kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Hays210.000$79kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Francisco Peña270.145$73kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Washington26–$64k
Richard Rodríguez270.000$47kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Scott220.000$44kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Logan Verrett271.079$29kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Oliver Drake300.094$25kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Wright Jr.272.000—ARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 2017; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.