BAL⇄SEA

BALBAL Dan Duquette net +$9.6M net +2.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $15M expected surplus · +$9.6M realized received 0.6 ± 2 expected · 2.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Paul FryP·24y·L/L

+$0.9M+$0.9M± $15M exp surplusrealized +$9.6M 0.6± 2 exp WARrealized 2.0

Prior

#507 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net −$9.6M net -2.0

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.