ANA⇄BAL

ANAANA Billy Eppler net +$4.0M net +0.5

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $26M expected surplus · +$4.0M realized received 0.6 ± 3 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2017 odds 3% → 4% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Parker BridwellP·25y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$4.0M 0.6± 3 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

#268 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.8/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.10/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Dan Duquette net −$4.0M net -0.5

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2017 odds 1% → 1% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.