RRosternomics
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Orioles BAL

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GM: Dan Duquette

Overview

FORCED-SPEND ↘ cooling
expensive & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 1.01× league · TAB -22.3
-22.3TAB — talent above budget30th/30
-35.1WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)30th/30
1.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars30th/30
-8.7dead WAR — sub-replacement drag28th/30
66%dead money %30th/30
0.290win %30th/30
12.0roster fWAR30th/30
-89surplus $M (value vs cost)29th/30
$132Mpayroll $M14th/30

Roster

CFAdam Jones 106GCedric Mullins 45GCraig Gentry 15G
LFTrey Mancini 98GJoey Rickard 36GCraig Gentry 31G
RFJoey Rickard 40GAdam Jones 33GAnthony Santander 29G
SSTim Beckham 49GJonathan Villar 18GJace Peterson 3G
2BJonathan Villar 110GJace Peterson 18GBreyvic Valera 16G
3BRenato Núñez 67GTim Beckham 40GDanny Valencia 39G
1BChris Davis 116GTrey Mancini 47GCorban Joseph 5G
STARTERSAlex Cobb 1.5WARDylan Bundy 1.0WARAndrew Cashner 0.6WARYefry Ramírez 0.3WARDavid Hess 0.1WAR
CCaleb Joseph 81GChance Sisco 55GAustin Wynns 41G
DHMark Trumbo 65GPedro Álvarez 30GTrey Mancini 17G
BULLPEN★ Mychal Givens 9svPaul Fry 9hRichard Bleier 9hMiguel Castro 5hTanner Scott 5hDarren O'Day 4hMike Wright Jr. 1hDonnie Hart 1h
CCaleb Joseph 81 · Chance Sisco 55 · Austin Wynns 41
1BChris Davis 116 · Trey Mancini 47 · Corban Joseph 5
2BJonathan Villar 110 · Jace Peterson 18 · Breyvic Valera 16
3BRenato Núñez 67 · Tim Beckham 40 · Danny Valencia 39
SSTim Beckham 49 · Jonathan Villar 18 · Jace Peterson 3
LFTrey Mancini 98 · Joey Rickard 36 · Craig Gentry 31
CFAdam Jones 106 · Cedric Mullins 45 · Craig Gentry 15
RFJoey Rickard 40 · Adam Jones 33 · Anthony Santander 29
DHMark Trumbo 65 · Pedro Álvarez 30 · Trey Mancini 17
SPAlex Cobb 1.5 · Dylan Bundy 1.0 · Andrew Cashner 0.6 · Yefry Ramírez 0.3 · David Hess 0.1
BP★ Mychal Givens 9 · Paul Fry 9 · Richard Bleier 9 · Miguel Castro 5 · Tanner Scott 5 · Darren O'Day 4 · Mike Wright Jr. 1 · Donnie Hart 1

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2018 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Manny Machado↔ LAD 25 FA-elig 964.5 9.5 +5.9
Mychal Givens 28 arb 691.8 0.6 +5.7
Alex Cobb 30 FA-elig 281.5 14.0 -8.8
Kevin Gausman↔ ATL 27 arb 211.5 3.7 +1.3
Jonathan Villar↔ MIL 27 arb 541.1 1.0 +2.9
Jonathan Schoop↔ MIL 26 arb 851.1 5.5 -1.9
Joey Rickard 27 pre-arb 791.0 0.3 +3.1
Dylan Bundy 25 FA-elig 311.0 1.6 +1.7
Richard Bleier 31 pre-arb 310.8 0.6 +2.3
Renato Núñez↔ TEX 24 pre-arb 600.7 0.2 +2.4
Paul Fry 25 – 350.7 0.3 +2.2
Tanner Scott 23 pre-arb 530.7 0.4 +1.8
Craig Gentry 34 FA-elig 680.7 0.9 +1.3
Andrew Cashner 31 FA-elig 290.6 6.5 -4.4
Brad Brach↔ ATL 32 FA-elig 420.4 3.1 -1.7
Darren O'Day 35 – 200.4 6.0 -4.6
DJ Stewart 24 – 170.4 0.1 +1.2
Jace Peterson↔ NYY 28 arb 930.3 0.5 +0.6
Mark Trumbo 32 FA-elig 900.3 12.5 -11.5
Yefry Ramírez 24 – 170.3 0.3 +0.6
Adam Jones 32 FA-elig 1450.3 17.3 -16.4
Trey Mancini 26 pre-arb 1560.2 0.6 +0.0
Breyvic Valera↔ LAD 26 pre-arb 120.1 0.0 +0.3
Austin Wynns 27 – 420.1 0.3 -0.0
David Hess 24 – 210.1 0.3 -0.1
Mike Wright Jr. 28 arb 480.1 0.6 -0.4
Cedric Mullins 23 – 450.1 0.2 -0.0
Josh Rogers 23 – 30.0 0.1 -0.0
Zack Britton↔ NYY 30 FA-elig 160.0 4.7 -4.6
John Means 25 – 10.0 0.0 +0.0
Luis Ortiz 22 – 2-0.0 0.1 -0.1
Donnie Hart 27 pre-arb 20-0.0 0.2 -0.3
Danny Valencia 33 FA-elig 79-0.1 1.2 -1.4
Jimmy Yacabonis 26 pre-arb 12-0.1 0.1 -0.3
Engelb Vielma 24 – 6-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Pedro Álvarez 31 FA-elig 45-0.1 1.0 -1.3
John Andreoli↔ SEA 28 – 23-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Sean Gilmartin 28 pre-arb 12-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Corban Joseph 29 pre-arb 14-0.1 0.1 -0.6
Tim Beckham 28 arb 96-0.2 3.4 -3.9
Jhan Mariñez 29 pre-arb 8-0.2 0.2 -0.8
Evan Phillips↔ ATL 23 – 5-0.2 0.0 -0.8
Miguel Castro 23 arb 63-0.2 0.6 -1.4
Ryan Meisinger 24 – 18-0.2 0.2 -1.0
Luis Sardinas 25 pre-arb 8-0.3 0.2 -1.1
Nestor Cortes 23 pre-arb 4-0.3 0.5 -1.4
Anthony Santander 23 pre-arb 33-0.3 0.5 -1.6
Andrew Susac 28 pre-arb 9-0.3 0.0 -1.2
Caleb Joseph 32 arb 82-0.4 1.2 -2.5
Chance Sisco 23 pre-arb 63-0.4 0.5 -1.8
Chris Tillman 30 FA-elig 7-0.4 3.0 -4.4
Colby Rasmus 31 FA-elig 18-0.4 3.0 -4.4
Cody Carroll 25 – 15-0.4 0.1 -1.7
Pedro Araújo 24 pre-arb 20-0.6 0.5 -2.5
Stevie Wilkerson 26 – 16-0.6 – –
Chris Davis 32 FA-elig 128-2.5 23.0 -31.7

Key additions (new vs 2017)

PlayerfWAR
Alex Cobb1.5
Jonathan Villar1.1
Renato Núñez0.7
Paul Fry0.7
Andrew Cashner0.6
DJ Stewart0.4

Key subtractions (gone from 2017)

Player2017 fWAR
Welington Castillo1.9
Seth Smith0.9
Francisco Peña0.3
Ubaldo Jiménez0.1
Oliver Drake0.0
Stefan Crichton-0.0

Current & Historical Payroll

2018 payroll
$131.7M
2019 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2018, 2018–2024. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2018; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Chris Davis328.061$23.0MFREE AGENT
Adam Jones3210.139$17.3MFREE AGENT
Alex Cobb306.061$14.0MFREE AGENT
Mark Trumbo327.027$12.5MFREE AGENT
Andrew Cashner317.126$6.5MFREE AGENT
Darren O'Day359.103$6.0MFREE AGENT
Colby Rasmus318.103$3.0MFREE AGENT
Chris Tillman306.113$3.0MFREE AGENT
Danny Valencia338.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Pedro Álvarez316.116$1.0MFREE AGENT
Craig Gentry346.065$900kFREE AGENT
Nestor Cortes236.094$545kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (11)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Manny Machado255.056$9.5MFREE AGENT
Jonathan Schoop264.027$5.5MARB 3FREE AGENT
Zack Britton305.158$4.7MFREE AGENT
Kevin Gausman273.151$3.7MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tim Beckham283.134$3.4MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Brach325.063$3.1MFREE AGENT
Caleb Joseph323.145$1.2MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jonathan Villar273.113$977kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Wright Jr.283.000$554kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jace Peterson283.033$454kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Paul Fry254.114$275kARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (33)

PlayerAgeSvc2018201920202021202220232024
Dylan Bundy252.026$1.6MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mychal Givens282.069$566kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Trey Mancini261.015$556kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Richard Bleier311.074$556kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Miguel Castro231.079$553kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Anthony Santander231.000$546kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chance Sisco230.031$546kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Pedro Araújo240.000$545kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tanner Scott230.015$434kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joey Rickard271.168$349kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Hess240.000$343kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Austin Wynns270.000$305kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Yefry Ramírez240.000$272kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Sardinas251.141$234kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cedric Mullins230.000$196kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Renato Núñez240.048$176kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Donnie Hart271.049$166kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Meisinger240.000$164kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhan Mariñez291.095$152kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Sean Gilmartin281.073$149kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Cody Carroll250.000$144kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Andreoli280.000$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jimmy Yacabonis260.039$105kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Rogers230.000$100kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Corban Joseph290.027$85kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Luis Ortiz220.000$79kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
DJ Stewart240.000$59kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Engelb Vielma24–$50k
Evan Phillips230.000$49kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Susac281.164$47kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Breyvic Valera260.018$36kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Means250.000$21kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Stevie Wilkerson26–—

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Orioles 2018; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.