BAL⇄NYY

BALBAL Dan Duquette net +$7.2M net +1.7

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $10M expected surplus · +$7.2M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 2017 odds 1% → 1% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Richard BleierP·30y·L/L

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$7.2M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

#183 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.29/yr blended

Horizon

4.4 control yrs × 0.35 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net −$7.2M net -1.7

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $0M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2017 odds 93% → 93% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

cash / PTBNL

+$0.0M+$0.0M± $0M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Cash or player to be named — no projection

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.