RRosternomics
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Braves ATL

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President of baseball ops: John Hart · GM: John Coppolella

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 3 in this regime · payroll 0.58× league · TAB -6.2
-6.2TAB — talent above budget22nd/30
-6.5WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)25th/30
4.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars24th/30
-9.0dead WAR — sub-replacement drag29th/30
51%dead money %26th/30
0.422win %26th/30
21.3roster fWAR26th/30
-1surplus $M (value vs cost)10th/30
$73Mpayroll $M26th/30

Roster

CFEnder Inciarte 120GMallex Smith 35GChase d'Arnaud 4G
LFMatt Kemp 54GMallex Smith 22GJace Peterson 15G
RFNick Markakis 150GChase d'Arnaud 1GMallex Smith 1G
SSDansby Swanson 37GChase d'Arnaud 21GDaniel Castro 20G
2BJace Peterson 87GGordon Beckham 51GDaniel Castro 16G
3BAdonis García 123GChase d'Arnaud 19GDaniel Castro 9G
1BFreddie Freeman 158GBlake Lalli 4GNick Markakis 1G
STARTERSJulio Teheran 3.2WARMike Foltynewicz 1.3WARMatt Wisler 0.4WARJohn Gant 0.1WARRob Whalen 0.0WAR
CTyler Flowers 81GA.J. Pierzynski 64GAnthony Recker 28G
DHNick Markakis 5GJeff Francoeur 3GAdonis García 2G
BULLPEN★ Jim Johnson 20svChris Withrow 12hIan Krol 10hMauricio Cabrera 8hAlexi Ogando 3hEric O'Flaherty 3hJosé Ramírez 3hArodys Vizcaíno 0h
CTyler Flowers 81 · A.J. Pierzynski 64 · Anthony Recker 28
1BFreddie Freeman 158 · Blake Lalli 4 · Nick Markakis 1
2BJace Peterson 87 · Gordon Beckham 51 · Daniel Castro 16
3BAdonis García 123 · Chase d'Arnaud 19 · Daniel Castro 9
SSDansby Swanson 37 · Chase d'Arnaud 21 · Daniel Castro 20
LFMatt Kemp 54 · Mallex Smith 22 · Jace Peterson 15
CFEnder Inciarte 120 · Mallex Smith 35 · Chase d'Arnaud 4
RFNick Markakis 150 · Chase d'Arnaud 1 · Mallex Smith 1
DHNick Markakis 5 · Jeff Francoeur 3 · Adonis García 2
SPJulio Teheran 3.2 · Mike Foltynewicz 1.3 · Matt Wisler 0.4 · John Gant 0.1 · Rob Whalen 0.0
BP★ Jim Johnson 20 · Chris Withrow 12 · Ian Krol 10 · Mauricio Cabrera 8 · Alexi Ogando 3 · Eric O'Flaherty 3 · José Ramírez 3 · Arodys Vizcaíno 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; ★ marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2016 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Freddie Freeman 26 FA-elig 1586.4 12.0 +8.9
Ender Inciarte 25 pre-arb 1314.0 0.5 +12.3
Julio Teheran 25 arb 313.2 3.3 +7.1
Tyler Flowers 30 FA-elig 832.5 2.0 +6.2
Jace Peterson 26 pre-arb 1151.5 0.5 +4.4
Mike Foltynewicz 24 pre-arb 221.3 0.4 +3.9
Jim Johnson 33 FA-elig 651.3 2.5 +1.8
Bud Norris↔ LAD 31 FA-elig 221.1 1.6 +2.1
Dansby Swanson 22 – 380.9 0.1 +2.9
Ian Krol 25 pre-arb 630.9 0.4 +2.5
Mauricio Cabrera 22 pre-arb 410.7 0.3 +1.9
Chase d'Arnaud 29 pre-arb 840.7 0.4 +1.7
Chaz Roe↔ BAL 29 arb 210.6 0.5 +1.4
Mallex Smith 23 – 720.6 0.5 +1.4
Nick Markakis 32 FA-elig 1580.5 11.0 -9.3
Adonis García 31 pre-arb 1340.5 0.5 +1.0
Lucas Harrell↔ TEX 31 – 50.4 0.1 +1.2
Jhoulys Chacín↔ ANA 28 – 50.4 0.1 +1.2
Matt Wisler 23 pre-arb 290.4 0.5 +0.8
Arodys Vizcaíno 25 arb 430.3 0.9 -0.0
Brandon Snyder 29 pre-arb 370.3 0.3 +0.6
Gordon Beckham↔ SFG 29 FA-elig 850.2 1.2 -0.6
Dario Alvarez↔ TEX 27 – 160.2 0.1 +0.5
Anthony Recker 32 arb 330.2 0.2 +0.4
Casey Kelly 26 pre-arb 100.2 0.1 +0.5
Hunter Cervenka↔ MIA 26 – 500.2 0.2 +0.3
José Ramírez 26 pre-arb 330.1 0.5 -0.1
Dan Winkler 26 pre-arb 30.1 0.5 -0.1
Shae Simmons 25 pre-arb 70.1 0.5 -0.1
Rio Ruiz 22 – 50.1 0.0 +0.3
Josh Collmenter↔ ARI 30 arb 30.1 0.3 -0.0
Matt Kemp↔ SDP 31 FA-elig 560.1 7.8 -7.6
John Gant 23 pre-arb 200.1 0.5 -0.3
Rob Whalen 22 – 60.0 0.2 -0.0
Madison Younginer IV 25 – 80.0 – –
Drew Stubbs↔ BAL 31 FA-elig 200.0 0.2 -0.1
Jed Bradley 26 pre-arb 60.0 0.1 -0.1
Jeff Francoeur↔ MIA 32 FA-elig 99-0.0 0.8 -0.8
Jason Grilli↔ TOR 39 FA-elig 21-0.0 1.1 -1.2
Jason Hursh 24 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Alexi Ogando 32 FA-elig 36-0.0 2.0 -2.1
Eric O'Flaherty 31 FA-elig 39-0.0 1.8 -1.9
Matt Tuiasosopo 30 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Matt Marksberry 25 pre-arb 4-0.1 0.2 -0.5
Brandon Cunniff 27 pre-arb 15-0.1 0.1 -0.4
Williams Pérez 25 pre-arb 11-0.1 0.5 -1.0
Blake Lalli 33 pre-arb 10-0.1 0.1 -0.5
Joel De La Cruz 27 – 22-0.2 0.3 -0.8
Roberto Hernandez 35 FA-elig 2-0.3 0.0 -0.9
Héctor Olivera 31 – 6-0.3 2.6 -3.4
Ryan Weber 25 pre-arb 16-0.3 0.2 -1.2
Reid Brignac 30 arb 13-0.3 0.1 -1.1
Emilio Bonifácio 31 – 24-0.3 1.2 -2.3
Chris Withrow 27 arb 46-0.4 0.6 -1.7
Erick Aybar↔ DET 32 FA-elig 97-0.6 6.5 -8.4
Kelly Johnson↔ NYM 34 FA-elig 49-0.7 0.7 -3.0
Aaron Blair 24 – 15-0.8 0.2 -2.9
Daniel Castro 23 – 47-1.2 – –
Tyrell Jenkins 23 pre-arb 14-1.2 0.2 -4.0
A.J. Pierzynski 39 FA-elig 81-1.9 3.0 -9.0

Key additions (new vs 2015)

PlayerfWAR
Ender Inciarte4.0
Tyler Flowers2.5
Bud Norris1.1
Dansby Swanson0.9
Ian Krol0.9
Mauricio Cabrera0.7

Key subtractions (gone from 2015)

Player2015 fWAR
Shelby Miller3.4
Andrelton Simmons3.1
Alex Wood2.3
Juan Uribe0.8
Pedro Ciriaco0.3
Phil Gosselin0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2016 payroll
$73.3M
2017 guaranteed
$0M

What the front office was committed to as of 2016, 2016–2022. Guaranteed $ are contract commitments signed by 2016; arbitration & free-agent years are projected from service time. Hover a figure for its luxury-tax (CBT) & actual-cash values.

current $ guaranteed $ arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent club option player option mutual option vesting option

Guaranteed / signed (15)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Nick Markakis3210.000$11.0MFREE AGENT
Matt Kemp319.049$7.8MFREE AGENT
Erick Aybar329.086$6.5MFREE AGENT
A.J. Pierzynski3915.100$3.0MFREE AGENT
Jim Johnson337.161$2.5MFREE AGENT
Alexi Ogando326.000$2.0MFREE AGENT
Eric O'Flaherty318.062$1.8MFREE AGENT
Bud Norris316.068$1.6MFREE AGENT
Emilio Bonifácio319.000$1.2MFREE AGENT
Gordon Beckham296.123$1.2MFREE AGENT
Jason Grilli399.016$1.1MFREE AGENT
Jeff Francoeur329.075$792kFREE AGENT
Kelly Johnson3410.127$748kFREE AGENT
Drew Stubbs316.005$172kFREE AGENT
Roberto Hernandez358.128$17kFREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (7)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Freddie Freeman265.033$12.0MFREE AGENT
Julio Teheran253.062$3.3MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyler Flowers304.148$2.0MARB 3FREE AGENT
Josh Collmenter305.000$308kFREE AGENT
Anthony Recker323.092$222kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jhoulys Chacín285.054$129kFREE AGENT
Reid Brignac303.171$72kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (38)

PlayerAgeSvc2016201720182019202020212022
Héctor Olivera31–$2.6M
Arodys Vizcaíno252.168$898kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Withrow272.132$610kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ender Inciarte251.157$523kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jace Peterson261.058$520kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Williams Pérez250.149$511kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Adonis García312.067$509kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dan Winkler261.000$508kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Shae Simmons251.121$508kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
John Gant230.000$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
José Ramírez262.000$507kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Wisler230.108$507kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chaz Roe291.041$504kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mallex Smith230.000$488kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Foltynewicz241.009$427kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chase d'Arnaud292.045$427kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ian Krol252.003$405kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Snyder291.122$294kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joel De La Cruz27–$275k
Mauricio Cabrera220.134$272kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Aaron Blair240.000$250kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Hunter Cervenka260.000$239kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tyrell Jenkins230.082$227kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Marksberry250.140$202kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ryan Weber250.027$189kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rob Whalen220.000$169kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dansby Swanson220.000$130kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brandon Cunniff271.018$125kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Lucas Harrell312.083$102kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jed Bradley260.032$89kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Dario Alvarez270.151$80kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Blake Lalli330.049$64kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Casey Kelly262.059$61kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Rio Ruiz220.000$44kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Tuiasosopo302.079$19kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jason Hursh240.042$17kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Madison Younginer IV25–—
Daniel Castro230.000—Pre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Braves 2016; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3
Rosternomics — quantifying front-office skill, attribution-clean. Follow @rosternomics on X. Decision-makers on record back to 1933; resource-controlled metrics (WAR & payroll) cover 1985–2026.
Data: FanGraphs (WAR), Baseball-Reference & the Chadwick Bureau register (rosters, IDs), the Lahman Database, Baseball America prospect rankings (via The Baseball Cube), and public payroll records. Transaction and trade data was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Executive birth/death data via Wikidata (CC0); bios are original. Emoji graphics by OpenMoji (CC BY-SA 4.0).
All figures are franchise-level outcomes credited to the decision-maker in the acquisition year — not solely attributable to one executive.