ATL⇄LAD

ATLATL John Hart net +$2.4M net +0.1

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $28M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.6 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2016 odds 1% → 1% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Phil PfeiferP·23y·L/L

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#101 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Caleb DirksP·23y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#463 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net −$2.4M net -0.1

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 2.3 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2016 odds 58% → 57% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bud NorrisP·31y·R/R

+$2.6M+$2.6M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

0.84/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Alec GrosserP·21y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#343 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Dian Toscano

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.