NYM⇄ATL

NYMNYM Sandy Alderson net +$4.0M net +0.9

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $6M expected surplus · +$4.8M realized received 0.8 ± 1 expected · 1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2016 odds 48% → 54% (+5.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kelly Johnson2B·34y·L/R

+$3.3M+$3.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized 1.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.83/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL John Hart net −$4.0M net -0.9

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $32M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 0.6 ± 4 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2016 odds 1% → 1% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Akeel MorrisP·23y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.6± 4 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#302 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -3.6/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.11/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.