RRosternomics

Diamondbacks ARI

GM: Kevin Towers

Overview

REBUILD ↘ cooling
cheap & losing · year 2 in this regime · payroll 0.92× league · TAB -12.1
-12.1TAB — talent above budget28th/30
-16.9WAB — realized wins (TAB + luck)29th/30
3.0depth — 2+ WAR regulars28th/30
-5.5dead WAR — sub-replacement drag14th/30
69%dead money %30th/30
0.395win %30th/30
21.1roster fWAR29th/30
-41surplus $M (value vs cost)24th/30
$104Mpayroll $M15th/30

Roster

CFEnder Inciarte 76GAJ Pollock 68GDavid Peralta 14G
LFMark Trumbo 41GEnder Inciarte 37GCody Ross 37G
RFDavid Peralta 40GCody Ross 20GAlfredo Marte 7G
SSDidi Gregorius 67GChris Owings 61GCliff Pennington 23G
2BAaron Hill 116GChris Owings 18GCliff Pennington 18G
3BJake Lamb 34GEric Chavez 11GCliff Pennington 8G
1BPaul Goldschmidt 109GMark Trumbo 43GJordan Pacheco 15G
STARTERSJosh Collmenter 1.6WARWade Miley 1.4WARVidal Nuño 0.6WARTrevor Cahill 0.5WARBronson Arroyo 0.5WAR
CMiguel Montero 131GTuffy Gosewisch 35GBobby Wilson 2G
DHEric Chavez 3GAaron Hill 2GMark Trumbo 2G
BULLPEN Addison Reed 32svBrad Ziegler 29hEvan Marshall 19hOliver Pérez 15hWill Harris 3hRandall Delgado 2hMatt Stites 2hEury De La Rosa 0h
CMiguel Montero 131 · Tuffy Gosewisch 35 · Bobby Wilson 2
1BPaul Goldschmidt 109 · Mark Trumbo 43 · Jordan Pacheco 15
2BAaron Hill 116 · Chris Owings 18 · Cliff Pennington 18
3BJake Lamb 34 · Eric Chavez 11 · Cliff Pennington 8
SSDidi Gregorius 67 · Chris Owings 61 · Cliff Pennington 23
LFMark Trumbo 41 · Ender Inciarte 37 · Cody Ross 37
CFEnder Inciarte 76 · AJ Pollock 68 · David Peralta 14
RFDavid Peralta 40 · Cody Ross 20 · Alfredo Marte 7
DHEric Chavez 3 · Aaron Hill 2 · Mark Trumbo 2
SPJosh Collmenter 1.6 · Wade Miley 1.4 · Vidal Nuño 0.6 · Trevor Cahill 0.5 · Bronson Arroyo 0.5
BP Addison Reed 32 · Brad Ziegler 29 · Evan Marshall 19 · Oliver Pérez 15 · Will Harris 3 · Randall Delgado 2 · Matt Stites 2 · Eury De La Rosa 0

Each position lists its starter then backups by games (so platoons & bench show). Starters (mound) & bullpen (left, foul territory) are ranked by WAR; marks the closer (most save chances). MLB Stats API.

2014 roster — value & surplus

PlayerAgeServiceGfWARSalary $MSurplus $M
Paul Goldschmidt 26 arb 1094.3 1.1 +11.4
Miguel Montero 30 FA-elig 1363.3 10.0 -0.2
AJ Pollock 26 pre-arb 752.9 0.5 +8.1
Ender Inciarte 23 1181.9 0.5 +5.2
Josh Collmenter 28 arb 331.6 0.9 +3.6
Chris Owings 22 pre-arb 911.5 0.5 +3.8
Wade Miley 27 arb 331.4 0.5 +3.6
Cliff Pennington 30 FA-elig 681.4 3.2 +0.7
David Peralta 26 881.0 0.5 +2.4
Brandon McCarthy↔ NYY 30 FA-elig 180.9 5.8 -3.3
Vidal Nuño↔ NYY 26 pre-arb 140.6 0.2 +1.4
Evan Marshall 24 570.5 0.5 +1.1
Trevor Cahill 26 arb 320.5 7.7 -6.2
Randall Delgado 24 arb 470.5 0.5 +0.9
Bronson Arroyo 37 FA-elig 150.5 9.5 -8.1
Zeke Spruill 24 pre-arb 60.5 0.5 +0.8
Oliver Pérez 32 FA-elig 680.5 1.8 -0.4
Eric Chavez 36 FA-elig 440.4 3.5 -2.2
Martín Prado↔ NYY 30 FA-elig 1060.3 8.2 -7.1
Didi Gregorius 24 pre-arb 800.3 0.5 +0.5
Nick Evans 28 pre-arb 180.3 0.0 +0.8
Chase Anderson 26 220.2 0.5 +0.2
Andrew Chafin 24 30.2 0.1 +0.5
Gerardo Parra↔ MIL 27 arb 1040.2 3.4 -2.8
Will Harris 29 pre-arb 290.2 0.5 +0.0
Mike Bolsinger 26 pre-arb 100.2 0.1 +0.4
Joe Thatcher↔ ANA 32 FA-elig 370.2 1.7 -1.2
Eury De La Rosa 24 250.1 0.5 -0.2
Jake Lamb 23 370.1 0.5 -0.2
Nolan Reimold↔ TOR 30 arb 70.1 0.1 +0.2
Daniel Hudson 27 arb 30.1 0.7 -0.5
Ryan Rowland-Smith 31 60.1 0.1 +0.1
J.J. Putz 37 FA-elig 180.0 7.0 -6.9
Brad Ziegler 34 FA-elig 68-0.0 4.5 -4.5
Bobby Wilson 31 arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.0
Bo Schultz 28 pre-arb 4-0.0 0.0 -0.1
Bradin Hagens 25 pre-arb 2-0.0 0.0 -0.2
Joe Paterson 28 pre-arb 3-0.1 0.0 -0.2
Andy Marte 30 6-0.1
Tuffy Gosewisch 30 pre-arb 41-0.1 0.5 -0.8
Brett Jackson 25 pre-arb 7-0.1 0.0 -0.3
Addison Reed 25 arb 62-0.2 0.5 -1.0
Jordan Pacheco↔ COL 28 arb 47-0.3 0.3 -1.1
Xavier Paul 29 14-0.3
Roger Kieschnick 27 pre-arb 25-0.4 0.1 -1.2
Tony Campana↔ ANA 28 arb 26-0.4 0.3 -1.5
Aaron Hill 32 FA-elig 133-0.5 11.0 -12.3
Mark Trumbo 28 arb 88-0.5 4.8 -6.2
Nick Ahmed 24 25-0.5 0.2 -1.6
Cody Ross 33 FA-elig 83-0.6 9.5 -11.2
Matt Stites 24 pre-arb 37-0.6 0.3 -2.1
Alfredo Marte 25 pre-arb 44-0.9 0.5 -3.2

Key additions (new vs 2013)

PlayerfWAR
Ender Inciarte1.9
David Peralta1.0
Vidal Nuño0.6
Evan Marshall0.5
Bronson Arroyo0.5
Oliver Pérez0.5

Key subtractions (gone from 2013)

Player2013 fWAR
Ian Kennedy0.4
Wil Nieves0.4
Matt Reynolds0.4
Matt Davidson0.3
Adam Eaton0.3
Willie Bloomquist0.3

Current & Historical Payroll

2014 payroll
$104.2M

What the front office was committed to as of 2014, 2014–2020. Pre-2015 has no contract-terms data — forward italic $ are realized actuals (hindsight, not commitments known then). Control labels (ARB/FA) are point-in-time.

current $ guaranteed $ actual $ (hindsight) arbitration (proj) pre-arb (proj) free agent

Guaranteed / signed (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Aaron Hill328.136$11.0M$12.0MFREE AGENT
Miguel Montero307.031$10.0MFREE AGENT
Cody Ross338.058$9.5MFREE AGENT
Bronson Arroyo3711.150$9.5MFREE AGENT
Martín Prado306.105$8.2MFREE AGENT
J.J. Putz3711.000$7.0MFREE AGENT
Brandon McCarthy307.122$5.8MFREE AGENT
Eric Chavez3616.000$3.5MFREE AGENT
Oliver Pérez329.144$1.8M$1.7MFREE AGENT
Chase Anderson2610.112$500k$512kFREE AGENT
Ryan Rowland-Smith317.000$72kFREE AGENT
Andy Marte309.000FREE AGENT

Arbitration-eligible (12)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Trevor Cahill265.000$7.7MFREE AGENT
Mark Trumbo283.027$4.8MARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brad Ziegler345.122$4.5MFREE AGENT
Gerardo Parra274.145$3.4MARB 3FREE AGENT
Cliff Pennington304.114$3.2MARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Thatcher325.068$1.7MFREE AGENT
Josh Collmenter283.000$925kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Daniel Hudson273.117$700kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Jordan Pacheco283.073$342kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nolan Reimold304.044$72kARB 3FREE AGENT
Bobby Wilson313.076$38kARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Xavier Paul293.119ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Pre-arbitration (28)

PlayerAgeSvc2014201520162017201820192020
Paul Goldschmidt262.059$1.1MARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Addison Reed252.027$538kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Wade Miley272.044$524kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Will Harris291.026$510kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Randall Delgado241.100$510kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
AJ Pollock261.052$507kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Didi Gregorius241.033$506kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tuffy Gosewisch300.060$502kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
David Peralta260.000$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Evan Marshall240.000$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Chris Owings220.027$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Zeke Spruill240.020$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Eury De La Rosa24$500k
Jake Lamb230.000$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Alfredo Marte250.135$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Ender Inciarte230.000$500kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Tony Campana281.155$301kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Matt Stites241.030$281kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Vidal Nuño260.055$228kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Ahmed240.000$150kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Mike Bolsinger261.072$134kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Roger Kieschnick270.062$109kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Andrew Chafin240.000$55kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Nick Evans281.128$49kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Joe Paterson281.035$46kPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Brett Jackson250.060$46kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bo Schultz282.085$22kARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT
Bradin Hagens250.007$19kPre-ArbPre-ArbARB 1ARB 2ARB 3FREE AGENT

Graphs

Every roster slot ranked best→worst by WAR. Bars = Diamondbacks 2014; the black line = the league-average player at each slot that season. Staying above the line deep into the roster is the depth edge; dropping below it = holes & dead weight.

What each regime is worth — every settled team-season since 1985

RegimeSeasonsWin %Playoff %Pennant %WS %
WINDOW 28152.131.05.01.1
CONTEND 30056.964.719.710.3
FORCED-SPEND 25648.09.81.61.6
REBUILD 32143.31.20.30.3