NYY⇄ARI

NYYNYY Brian Cashman net +$8.0M net +0.9

received +$13.6M+$13.6M ± $10M expected surplus · +$13.6M realized received 1.7 ± 1 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYY's 2014 odds 15% → 19% (+3.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brandon McCarthyP·30y·R/R

+$13.9M+$13.9M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$13.6M 1.7± 1 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.8/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.70/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

ARIARI Kevin Towers net −$8.0M net -0.9

received +$9.6M+$9.6M ± $18M expected surplus · +$5.6M realized received 1.7 ± 2 expected · 0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ARI's 2014 odds 1% → 1% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Vidal NuñoP·26y·L/L

+$9.4M+$9.4M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 1.7± 2 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

#1445 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.32/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.